Cameron in an indoor stadium (USP)

I'm the teacher's pet, I make football (picks). All selections in this piece use the numbers drawn from Yahoo! Pro Football Pick'Em.

Panthers +7 at Falcons: This one probably looks easy for Atlanta – they've been razor sharp, while Carolina looked so awful last week against the Giants. But football handicapping isn't that simple; the carpets are plush in Vegas for a reason. I like Carolina coming into this game with extra rest and prep time, and I still don't trust Atlanta's depth in the secondary. Between Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell and Greg Olsen, the Panthers have enough to get their points – and perhaps spring an upset.

Patriots -4 at Bills: Although New England clearly outplayed Baltimore last week (and got the cover), the Boys of Belichick didn't get a win. That enables us to play another bounce-back spot here. The Patriots recent history against Buffalo is very favorable (though Buffalo had a fluky split last year, taking a 38-31 victory at home). Do the Bills have the corners to press New England? Can Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills outscheme Belichick? How will Buffalo handle Rob Gronkowski, who's driven them bananas over the last two years?

Michael Vick runs for his life (USP)Shuffle Up rankings are for the rest of the season. These are not Week 4 ranks. What's happened to this point is an audition, nothing more. If I were starting a fresh league tonight, here's how I'd attack the quarterback position.

If you have a comment on the ranks, I'm all ears. Best place to get my ear: respond to me on Twitter. Use the hashtag #shuffleup.

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Drew Brees
3. Tom Brady
4. Matt Ryan
5. Robert Griffin III

The easiest fantasy advice of the week: don't panic, watch Rodgers go off against the crummy New Orleans defense. No heavy lifting there. … While Brees probably won't get last year's efficiency level back, the volume keeps him very much float. … If there weren't any injury concerns tied to Griffin, he could easily be in the Top 3. It's hard to watch his snaps every week — he's getting the tar beaten out of him.

6. Cam Newton
7. Matthew Stafford
8. Eli Manning
9. Ben Roethlisberger
10. Peyton Manning
11. Michael Vick

While Griffin feels like an injury risk, Vick is more of an injury certainty. He's managed one full season as a pro, his line stinks, and his pocket awareness has never really developed. As soon as Vick presents a monster game, sell sell sell. The timing probably isn't right to sell him right now, but your mileage will vary. … To be honest, I'm not exactly mad for Peyton Manning. But he should show notable improvement as he gets more familiarity with his new teammates, and he's still as smart as anyone in the game — note the second-half adjustments he's made every week.

Mayday Milone, one last time (USP)

Not the friendliest streaming card, but some of us need these guys. Double-check everything and pick carefully, it's baseball's silly season. And after they work for you, dump them: they're not pitching again.

Blue Chip
Phil Hughes at TOR - Take advantage of an opponent that's packed it in.
Tommy Milone vs. SEA - Sweet music at home; gets messy on the road.
Mike Fiers vs. HOU - He's crashed back to earth, but look at the opponent.

Red Chip
Edinson Volquez vs. SF - Never a fun ride, but Petco hides mistakes.
Erasmo Ramirez at OAK - A credible option after recent turns.
Josh Beckett vs. COL - Home start against Colorado is always a good draw.
Joe Saunders vs. BOS - Hard to trust in this homer-happy park, but Sox no longer scary.

Yellow Submarine (USP)

How good are the Falcons? How bad were the outgoing scab refs? Is Norv Turner a better coach after September? Are the Jets done without Darrelle Revis?

Time for a look around the league, starting with Michael Salfino and ending with Scott Pianowski

From: Michael Salfino
Date: Wed, Sep 26, 2012 at 11:17 AM
Subject: Week 4 Breakfast
To: scott pianowski

The U.N. Security Council is meeting right now to work out the world's biggest problem, the Immaculate Deception call in the Seahawks-Packers game. Forget peace in the Middle East. We need to bring the NFL and the referees back together pronto or Western Civilization may collapse.

Actually, I was not surprised at all that the NFL said the call was good. I think it's like the "complete the process of the catch" rule. We know that was an interception just like we know when a guy catches the ball and when he doesn't. But the rule sort of gums up the works. How to rewrite it, I have no idea. As a Jets fan, I've lived through this craziness before. I think we'd be screaming if the replacement refs made those calls or a multitude of crappy calls that the real refs made every single week.

But the idea that fans are going to boycott games or that the Packers would protest by just taking a knee for the whole game is such an overreaction. Remember, M.D. Jennings on that play did not win the battle and Golden Tate, to his credit, put the stupid rule in play just like a defensive back does when he strips the ball from a receiver rolling on the ground after a "catch."

As for the rest of the league, how crazy is it that Brady, Brees, Peyton and Rodgers are now 3-9? Has there ever been a team you are less impressed by at 2-1 than the Eagles? Okay, maybe the Jets. How many points is Revis worth per game? What happened to the Niners? Are the Vikings better than the Lions? Are the Falcons actually underrated now by the sharps? Can anyone stop the Texans? Are the Super Bowl champions flying under the radar? Week 4 Breakfast is served.

Strike a pose? Probably not this week (USP)Psst. Hey you, Ramses Barden owner. Step away from the keyboard. Hands off the smart phone. It's too early to consider dropping your Week 3 wonder off the waiver wire.

Hakeem Nicks, you see, is a headache once again for Week 4.

The Giants have slapped the doubtful tag on Nicks and don't figure he'll go in the divisional showdown Sunday night against the Eagles. Nicks is dealing with swelling in his knee, and fantasy owners won't want to deal with the wait-and-see concept given that it's the evening game. Start scouting replacements immediately.

(Saturday Update: Nicks is confirmed out; he didn't travel with the club. Done and done.)

[More: NFL referees overwhelmingly approve new contract]

Now we'll go around the league, in this order: QB, RB, WR, TE, other positions. Settle in, settlers.

• Matthew Stafford (hip) had a full practice Friday and is listed as probable. Plug and play as you normally would. The weakest part of the Vikings defense is the secondary.

• Christian Ponder (neck) is on the injury report but it's as probable; go ahead and use him at Detroit.

• Matt Schaub (shoulder) should be fine against Tennessee. He's listed as probable.

• The Buffalo backfield is a cloud of confusion, as Fred Jackson (knee) and C.J. Spiller (shoulder) both hold the questionable tag. The Bills don't mind keeping the Patriots guessing; Bill Belichick would probably list his entire roster as questionable if he could get away with it. Context clues point to Jackson being more likely to play than Spiller, but there's nothing guaranteed with this backfield. Hopefully you have safer options to rely on. If all else fails, Tashard Choice is the No. 3 back.

Meeting at Marco Island (USP)

The Saturday slate on the sandlots is a meandering one, starting at 1 pm ET and winding down around midnight. Some aces are in play for their fortunate owners (Justin Verlander and Chris Sale most notably), so we'll have to work around that. Let's find you a temporary option, a one-night contractor.

(Standard disclaimer: consider every starting assignment to be tentative. It's the final week of the silly season. Double-check before you commit.)

Countdown to Ecstasy
Andy Pettitte at TOR
Marco Estrada vs. HOU
Mike Minor vs. NYM
Daniel Straily vs. SEA

Estrada was knocked around last week at Washington, but that's going to happen sometimes when you face a playoff-bound bully. The Astros are obviously low on the threatening meter, and Estrada's been especially sharp at home (70.2 IP, 10 BB, 78 K, 3.31 ERA, 0.95 WHIP). He's also drawing one of the weaker Houston starters.

Do It Again
Ricky Nolasco vs. PHI
Ervin Santana at TEX
Jason Vargas at OAK
Eric Stults vs. SF
Steve Johnson vs. BOS

We lost Nolasco's number a while ago, but the siren is singing again: 1.93 ERA, 1.11 WHIP over the last month. He's up against Doc Halladay here, but that hasn't been a big deal for 2012 (he's carrying a 4.78 ERA in the second half). Can you forgive Nolasco for past transgressions? … Santana has been lights out in six of his last seven turns, though four home starts and some friendly road locations (Seattle, 2012's version of Boston) played into it. His career numbers in Arlington are not pretty, covering 15 starts (7.08/1.53). Which way are you going to play it?

Dancing in DC (USP)

Many fantasy owners were petrified to try a Washington or New England running back this summer, but Alfred Morris and Stevan Ridley have produced more than initially expected through three games. Can we finally trust a Mike Shanahan or Bill Belichick ball carrier going forward, or is it a good time to sell high? And if you had a choice of these backs over the balance of the season, who would you select today?

Michael Salfino and Scott Pianowski aren't known for agreeing, and as usual they take different sides here. Consider their arguments, then add your own angles and vote in the comments.

Salfino Stumps for Morris: It looks like all the things we feared with Morris are actually happening to Ridley. This doesn't surprise me because Bill Belichick has been much more fickle/game-plan-oriented/insane (whatever you want to call it) with his backs in recent years than Mike Shanahan has been. Last year, for example, Shanahan changed backs because of injuries. But on Sunday, we saw Ridley, who seemed so safe in a suddenly more run-oriented Patriots offense, get 30% of snaps to 63% for Danny (the Waterboy) Woodhead.

So in saying I like Morris for the balance of the year, I'm not disrespecting Ridley's talent or even his environment (when he's on the field). I'm just uncertain now how he will be deployed in any given week. Morris, despite the fact that he's not at all involved in the passing game, is used otherwise as you'd expect a feature back to be used. He's getting the vast majority of carries and is always on the field in goal-line situations. So I'm very confident he'll be one of the 11-12 backs the past five years who have 250-plus carries. Given that he'll be deployed regularly on the goal-line (I'll project about 10 more TDs), we can live with the lack of catches. And in non-PPR, of course, that hardly matters at all.

Get your game face on, it's the fantasy playoffs (USP)

The Friday schedule is one of the better streaming slates of the week, at least on paper. Here's hoping gravity goes along with the plan. And please remember to script your plans in pencil: every scheduled pitcher must be treated as tentative this time of year. Go through your cross-checks before you commit to anything; some teams will likely make rotation adjustments over the next 35-40 hours. Just the nature of the game.

Dial Them Up
*Chris Tillman vs. BOS
A.J. Griffin vs. SEA
Homer Bailey at PIT
Jon Niese at ATL

Tillman will probably go Friday against Boston, though it's not locked in stone yet. He's handled himself nicely over the last five appearances (28.2 IP, 18 H, 7 ER, 8 BB, 22 K). The endgame Red Sox aren't anything to fear, nor is likely Boston starter Aaron Cook. … Griffin's road trips to New York and Detroit didn't go so well, but let's be careful not to overreact. He allowed three runs or less in each of his first 11 starts. Is that something you might be interested in? He's collected four strikeouts for every walk, and his ratios are superb at home (2.67/0.83). Score another win for Oakland's deep organizational pitching depth.

Text For Availability
Ryan Vogelsong at SD
Travis Wood at ARI

The Vogelsong story started to spiral out of control in early August, but I'm not afraid to use him here. Although the veteran righty carries a 7.16 ERA over the last 10 starts, that's tied to a solid strikeout/walk rate (52/17) and a sky-high BABIP (.384). The schedule also came into play: two visits to Coors Field, one start in Arizona, and one start (albeit a good one) in St. Louis. Vogelsong handled the Padres last week, and I'm expecting a quality start here. … Wood has to deal with the dangers of Chase Field, but his recent form (2.68/0.95 over last month) and strikeout potential (33 whiffs in 37 innings) put him in this bracket.