Scott Pianowski

  • Shuffle Up: J.D. Martinez, the real deal

    Scott Pianowski at Roto Arcade 4 hrs ago

    The assignment on the docket is outfielders. What's happened to this point is merely an audition. How should we rank the Yahoo-eligible outfielders, 5x5 value, if the season started right now?

    A few rules. Catcher-eligibles who also qualify in the outfield are ignored. I don't rank anyone in the minors - you can decide what they're worth to you. And while I do rank injured players, I'm not going to debate those ranks. It's not my back, my wrist, or my surgery, and I've found over the years that almost everyone is far more optimistic about long-term injury returnees than I am.

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    The dollar values are unscientific, and merely provided as a tool to compare the players at the same position (I wouldn't suggest you use them to compare players at different positions). Groups of players at the same price are considered even. 

    Game on. 

  • Daily Dime: Exes (Bogaerts) and Ohs (Odor) on a Monday

    Scott Pianowski at Roto Arcade 22 hrs ago

    Run the lineups, check the weather, nod to Elle King, assemble your dream team. Let's get to it...

    Rougned Odor, 2B, at BAL (Norris), $2600: There have been three distinct portions of Odor’s season: the awful five weeks that forced a demotion (.486 OPS), the ballistic month at Triple-A where he restored his confidence (1.065 OPS), and the snappy 12 games since he returned (.395/.442/.632, two homers, four steals). The Rangers are using Odor at the top of the lineup more often than not these days, and I have to assume he sticks there Monday, off a three-hit game and facing the ordinary Bud Norris. The backdrop of Camden Yards is also a plus. Even if Odor were into the 3K range, I’d strongly consider him. At this bargain cost, it’s an easy punch. 

    I’d like to see more of the seasonal players jumping in, too. Odor is the No. 6 second baseman in Yahoo over the last two weeks, but he’s still free to add in 71 percent of leagues. Get to work. 

  • Daily Dime: To Scherzer or not to Scherzer?

    Scott Pianowski at Roto Arcade 4 days ago

    Run through the lineups, check the weather, build your DFS green monster. 

    Max Scherzer, SP, at PHI (Harang), $12500: Your Friday lineup construction starts with the Max-or-no-Max question. Scherzer has been untouchable over his last two starts (18 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 26 K), and now draws the lowest scoring team in the majors. Although the Nats are on the road, Scherzer is still the biggest favorite on the card, checking in at -205.  

    I can't blame anyone who decides this is an unstoppable force that needs to be purchased Friday. But there's a realistic secondary option if you want to save some money. 

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    Liriano is generally a good bet with the home cooking, holder of a 3.19 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, for his career, at PNC Park. And the Braves tend to struggle against left-handers, holding the second-worst wOBA in the majors in that split. 

  • Closing Time: Luis Valbuena and the Mendoza Line

    Scott Pianowski at Roto Arcade 6 days ago

    Luis Valbuena is not a particularly skilled fielder. Luis Valbuena is not a fast baserunner. Luis Valbuena doesn't have a rocket arm. Luis Valbuena swings and misses an awful lot. There's a lengthy list of things he can't do. 

    Oh, and Luis Valbuena hits some home runs. A lot of them, in fact. 

    Valbuena clocked a couple of souvenirs (juicy center-cut fastballs) in Tuesday's romp in the OC, giving him 19 homers for the season. Only four players have hit more. He qualifies at two Yahoo positions (second, third), something we love in the fantasy game. 

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    Does this mean Valbuena has fantasy value? That's open to debate. 

    Valbuena is still available in about three-quarters of Yahoo leagues. And he'll probably be in my Tout Wars lineup next week, for better or for worse. 

  • Daily Dime: Unstoppable Pujols, comebacking Cano, blossoming Buxton

    Scott Pianowski at Roto Arcade 6 days ago

    The worst part of DFS is the need to play weatherman. The Tuesday forecast is messy for the games in Boston, New York and Washington, which potentially mucks up some strong theoretical plays (Betts, Franco, Gardner, so many guys under this unfortunate cloud). You'll have to decide what that risk means to you. As always, try to make your final decisions as close to the start of your contest as possible. 

    Your weather info is here. Lineups, eventually, will filter in here.

    Robinson Cano, 2B, vs. KC (Guthrie), $2400: He's started to perk up over the last few games (1.015 OPS last five), and Jeremy Guthrie can't get left-handers out consistently (remember what the Yankees did to him a month ago)? Any Seattle lefty you want to consider (Seager, Smith, Morrison, even Miller), I completely see the argument. 

  • Closing Time: Hector Santiago, better than you think

    Scott Pianowski at Roto Arcade 7 days ago

    Do you believe in love? Do you believe in magic? Do you believe in miracles? 

    Do you believe in Hector Santiago, Orange County lefty with a tidy 2.68 ERA? 

    The spreadsheets and the projection systems sure don't - they've been calling for Santiago's collapse for several years now. Pumpkin risk, raised to orange. Although Santiago has a 3.36 career ERA, his FIP stands at 4.41 and his xFIP at 4.55. Zips and Steamer both expect Santiago to have an ERA over four over the remainder of 2015. 

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    Two outlier stats jump out when you examine Santiago's page: he's stranding runners at a ridiculous 89-percent rate and he's inducing a fly ball 52.7 percent of the time. Both stats rank first among all qualified starters. 

    Try to keep an open mind. 

  • Shuffle Up: Jacob deGrom, the hair apparent

    Scott Pianowski at Roto Arcade 7 days ago

    I'm on a plane. I can't complain. 

    The idea is 5x5 value for rest of season. What's happened to this point is merely an audition. I provide courtesy injury ranks at bottom, but they're not for debate. Everyone seems to be more optimistic on injury returnees than I am.

    The prices are unscientific in nature, and players at the same price are considered even. I'm just looking for a way to show the pockets of value as I see them. I don't look at old prices when I construct these - it's all from scratch. I don't even see the point of looking back there; live in the present, look to the future.

    I welcome your respectful disagreement. Obviously you will feel passionate about what you don't agree with, that's why we have a game. But why not give a solid reason, so we are all elevated by your knowledge? I know most of you get it, and see the value in that.

    And remember the golden rule - a player doesn't gain value because you like him, nor does he lose value because you don't like him. I didn't rank Dallas Keuchel first, did I?

    Two more courtesy ranks

    $7 Steven Matz $5 Ervin Santana

  • Daily Dime: Happy Michael Pineda Day

    Scott Pianowski at Roto Arcade 8 days ago

    Yes, it's an abbreviated card, but there's lots of fun on the docket. Run some lineups, track some weather, build your perfect beast.  

    Players to Buy

    Michael Pineda, SP, vs. PHI (Correia), $10100: As great as Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez are, I’m a big fan of going with a modified ace if the matchup and savings line up. They seem to in this case - if you opt for Pineda over Kershaw, you gain $2000 in extra fun money on Fan Duel. 

    You always want to see the Phillies on the schedule - they’re dead last in runs, and dead last in road scoring. Pineda’s best foot has come at home, with a 2.36 ERA and 55 strikeouts in 45.2 innings. 

    Brian Dozier, 2B, vs. CHW (Danks), $3900: He didn’t click as a weekend recco against Jon Lester, but the draw is significantly stronger now. Dozier’s career splits are slightly better at home, and he gets a 174-point OPS boost against left-handers. He also has good career numbers against John Danks, if 17 plate appearances matter to you. 

  • Daily Dime: Ride the hot hand with Betts, Grichuk, Gregorius

    Scott Pianowski at Roto Arcade 9 days ago

    Full slate Sunday, let's get to it. Your lineups are here, your weather is here

    Joey Votto, 1B. vs. MIA (Phelps), $4000: He’s not the priciest of the first sackers on Father’s Day, but he is at home against an ordinary right-hander. David Phelps has a 4.31 ERA and 1.26 WHIP on the road this season. 

    Didi Gregorius, SS, vs. DET (Sanchez), $2400: His overall stats don’t look like much, but he’s homered in two straight games and is moved up to the No. 2 position for Sunday. Yankee Stadium can be an awfully small park in the daytime. 

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    Randal Grichuk, OF, at PHI (Morgan), $3200: The price has come up, but Grichuk’s play has forced it. He’s homered three times in two days, and gets a leadoff assignment against a nondescript left-hander. That will work. The St. Louis offense has been just fine without Matt Holliday. 

  • Daily Dime: Midwest bias with Brian Dozier, Corey Kluber, Todd Frazier, Trevor Plouffe

    Scott Pianowski at Roto Arcade 9 days ago

    Check some lineups, sort through some weather, set your path for domination. Here's a playbook to consider. 

    Brian Dozier, 2B, vs. CHC (Lester), $4000: I’m surprised the Twins have just 26 steals, tied for 23rd in the majors - Paul Molitor was the smartest baserunner I ever saw, and I figured this would be an aggressive team in all manners. Nonetheless, Jon Lester on the mound might give the home team a kick start (only Tiger Woods has a worse case of the yips), and Dozier has always been an overlord against southpaws (.869 OPS). 

    Ben Zobrist, 2B, vs. LAA (Weaver), $3200: The Z is one of the hottest hitters over the last week (1.683 OPS, 11 runs, two homers, eight RBIs) and he has a strong career line against Jered Weaver. The A’s knocked Weaver around for six runs in the last meeting, and they’ve scored 47 runs over their last six games. Bang on the drum all day.