LOUISVILLE, Ky. – One of the oldest sayings in horse racing is, "Pace makes the race."

Kentucky Derby hopeful Bodemeister gallops on the track. (Reuters)

It's certainly true now. Pace will make – or break – the Kentucky Derby Saturday.

The Derby is the hardest race to handicap in America – a massive field of horses going farther than they've ever gone, and at a young age. But the 138th running basically boils down to this: Do you believe the pace will be fast enough to cook the most talented horse in the field or not?

I'm wagering not. Which means I'm going with the favorite, Bodemeister.

[Related: Derby dreams realized and broken in 120 seconds]

He will be forwardly placed in the race – but if he is too close to what figures to be a blistering pace set by speedball Trinniberg, he will probably be cooked in the long stretch of this 1-¼-mile test. The bet here is that Bodemeister, ridden by patient pace judge Mike Smith, will be able to relax and resist chasing Trinniberg through the first ¾-of-a-mile. I also believe Hansen, another key

Read More »from Kentucky Derby picks are in, and it's Bodemeister's race to lose

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – To understand why the Kentucky Derby really is the most exciting two minutes in sports – why stomachs twist at the start and hearts pound at the finish and tension permeates every step in between – you must trace the broad path that narrows to a razor's edge Saturday evening. You must go back to the beginning.

Doreen Tabor, left, wife of Michael Tabor, owner of Thunder Gulch, reacts to their Derby win in 1995. (AP)The journey to this 138th running of the world's greatest horse race began in late winter or early spring of 2009. It began on a thoroughbred farm somewhere – the rolling bluegrass countryside of Kentucky for many. It began at birth, with blood and wobbly legs and high hopes for every live thoroughbred foal.

What followed has been a remorseless whittling down to the fastest and the fittest of the three-year-olds.

The Jockey Club estimates that 36,850 foals were born in 2009. Of that group, 1.1 percent (412) was nominated for the 2012 Triple Crown. Of those 412, 4.9 percent (20) were entered in the 2012 Kentucky Derby.

And about 6:26 ET Saturday,

Read More »from Kentucky Derby drama comes down to this: Dreams will be realized and broken in 120 seconds

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – On the kind of Kentucky spring morning that makes you glad to be alive, Bob Baffert was talking about the first time horse racing nearly killed him.

Bob Baffert has brought 23 horses to the Kentucky Derby, including Bodemeister this year. (Getty Images)The longtime, highly decorated trainer was leaning on the rail along the backstretch at Churchill Downs, a survivor freshly appreciative of his surroundings. The historic Twin Spires loomed across the track in bright sunshine, and a strong Kentucky Derby contender was stabled in his barn. He was talking about 1977.

Back then, Baffert was a college kid who rode quarter horses in his native Arizona to earn spending money, though he readily admits he wasn't a very good jockey; he lacked the nerve and commitment to take the necessary risks for the usual winning rider's purse of $30.

One day on a dusty racetrack in Kingman, he was exercising a horse named Jet Meyer. Baffert's saddle slipped, and he was thrown underneath the horse. Jet Meyer stepped on his chest, cracking his sternum and scraping off the skin.

Read More »from Bob Baffert is back from a heart attack with Kentucky Derby favorite Bodemeister

CHICAGO – Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany told a small group of reporters Wednesday that he is open to the idea of limiting a proposed four-team playoff to conference champions, but only if they meet a minimum ranking standard.

The Big Ten's Jim Delany wants a playoff limited to conference champions. (Getty Images)For instance, Delany suggested potentially capping the lowest rankings of the eligible conference champions at No. 6 in whatever ranking system is chosen. If there were not four league champions in the top six, then a wild-card team could be chosen to fill the four-team playoff.

Other conference commissioners, including SEC boss Mike Slive, are opposed to a champions-only playoff format. They prefer the four highest-ranked teams, regardless of how they finished in conference play.

Delany also said he is open to using a selection committee to pick the participants in the playoff.

He acknowledged that agreeing on the method for choosing the playoff teams is probably the most complicated part of the process of moving from the current BCS system to a new

Read More »from Jim Delany says he would back champs-only playoffs, but with a minimum ranking

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – The Kentucky Derby has humbled Arab oil sheikhs, British billionaires and every conceivable captain of American industry. Thoroughbred owners who arrive at Churchill Downs accustomed to getting what they want and having every answer routinely walk out beaten and bewildered. Even the winners tend to leave in awe of the moment and reverential of the race.

Kendall Hansen celebrates Hansen's win in the Juvenile race at the Breeders' Cup. (AP)But the Derby will have its hands full with Dr. Kendall Hansen.

He is the owner of the excellent colt and prime Derby contender Hansen – a horse he named after himself. Humility, apparently, doesn't come naturally to the good doctor, who runs a pain-management practice in northern Kentucky near Cincinnati.

But it's not just the naming of the horse that illustrates the egomania here. No, there is a full body of self-promotional work from the Ke$ha of horse racing. Just look at Dr. Hansen's frantic efforts to make his thoroughbred's 3-year-old campaign all about him instead of his horse.

Hansen the human

Read More »from Hansen the human trying to outshine Kentucky Derby hopeful Hansen the horse

HOLLYWOOD, Fla. – A vision of the future in college football:

On the afternoon of Jan. 1, 2015, the No. 1-ranked team in the BTBCS (Better Than Bowl Championship Series) will play the No. 4 team in the Rose Bowl. That night, the No. 2 and No. 3 teams will face off in the Orange Bowl.

The SEC's Mike Slive can finally use the word A week later, the winners of those games will play in the first BTBCS Championship Game at Cowboys Stadium in Dallas, courtesy of a massive winning bid by Jerry Jones to play host to the game.

And America's quality of life will be improved because of it.

After 145 years of fan aggravation and bowl avarice, we will have a championship settled on the field. The college football regular season – best of any sport – will remain a vital and thriving entity. The college football postseason – the dumbest thing in sports – will be significantly upgraded. The televising network will have a ratings smash surpassed only in athletic programming by the Super Bowl. Conferences and schools will be rolling in even Read More »from The word of the day is 'playoff,' and it's coming (relatively) soon to a field near you

SEC commissioner Mike Slive is leading the charge to a potential college football playoff.HOLLYWOOD, Fla. – Mike Slive appears close to presiding over another epic victory.

The commissioner of the Southeastern Conference has seen his member schools win an unprecedented six straight Bowl Championship Series titles. Now Slive's determined push for a college football playoff appears more likely to succeed than ever.

That was the vibe from multiple participants in the more than 10 hours of talks Wednesday at the annual BCS meetings here. Nothing will be official until later this summer, after each commissioner takes the proposals adopted here back to their conference membership and then more national meetings ensue. But this is the crucial first phase, and it has gone well for the pro-playoff faction.

At the very least, come the 2014 season we will definitely not have the same problematic postseason college football currently is saddled with.

"The status quo is off the table," BCS executive director Bill Hancock said.

(Let us pause here for a moment of fan

Read More »from College football playoff closer to a reality

After a century-plus of pushing, the immovable object has been nudged out of its entrenched position. Now it's time to get that sucker rolling.

That's the mindset as college football power brokers descend on south Florida this week for the annual BCS meetings. The beginning of a sea change in the game's postseason is at hand.

Nick Saban and Alabama may find their next national title a little tougher to win. (AP)The monolithic impediment to a playoff – the bowl system and all its apologists and cronies – finally has given ground in recent months. When Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany voiced his own playoff plan in February, it was like a Baptist minister drinking a shot of bourbon and declaring it good. When Delany saw the light, that was the signal that major change was inevitable.

These meetings will begin the process of turning change into something tangible. It won't be easy. Here is a brief primer on what will – and will not – happen in Florida this week.

Who is invited: The commissioners of all 11 FBS conferences, plus one athletic director from each league.

Read More »from Here's all you need to know about the playoff discussions at this week's BCS meeting