YOUR FRIENDS' ACTIVITY

    Michael Salfino

    • Like
    • Follow
    Author

    Michael Salfino provides quantitative player and team analysis for the Wall Street Journal and Yahoo! Sports.

    • Football by the Numbers: Matchups to seek and avoid

      This will be the last matchup piece of the season. Thanks for following it and I hope it helped you navigate this very challenging fantasy season. Appreciate the feedback here and via Twitter @MichaelSalfino and look forward to doing it all over again next season. Until then, Happy Holidays and Happy New Year.

      These rankings are for the purpose of predicting how many fantasy points defenses will allow to offensive players this week. This week's highlighted matchups follow after the chart. But first a word about the categories. Only "Red Zone" is a little tricky. We're not talking efficiency there, but rather red zone possessions allowed. Red Zone Possessions have proven over many years to be more useful in predicting future defensive performances. Plus there's too much overlap with the TD rates we look at. RYPG is rushing yards per game. RTD/G is rushing TDs per game. PYPG is passing yards per game. PTD/G is passing TDs/per game. Obviously, yardage allowed is more reliable than

      Read More »from Football by the Numbers: Matchups to seek and avoid
    • Scouting Notebook: Bump up Bush

      This was the "Any Given Sunday" Sunday. Let's dissect in the Scouting Notebook. Remember to send me any questions, comments, pro-Tim Tebow tirades/eternal damnation threats to me via Twitter @MichaelSalfino.

      Since Reggie Bush was drafted in 2006, there have been 380 games where a back has had at least 25 carries. Bush hadn't been one of them until Sunday. He made the most of these extra touches, topping 200 rushing yards. He's only going to be 27 next season, younger than Michael Bush and DeAngelo Williams and only six months older than Chris Johnson. Where does he get drafted in '12? He's an injury risk, but every running back is that. Let's put him comfortably in the top 36.

      I really thought that this was Tebow's best game. I'm not going to be a hypocrite about it. It doesn't matter to me that the Broncos lost just like it didn't matter to me that the Broncos won his other games. Tebow threw the ball better than I've seen and also had by far his best game as a runner (where he's been

      Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Bump up Bush
    • Scouting Notebook: Smoke and mirrors

      We have to start with a quarterback who doesn't play well but who shows a lot of moxie when it matters most and continues to lead his team to victories despite spending most of his Sundays looking like anything but a competent NFL signal caller. That T.J. Yates is really something, isn't he?

      Yeah, we have to talk about Tim Tebow again. Is it interesting or just boring how he enables everyone to plausibly continue to think what they think about him? Personally, I'd settle for him proving me wrong by just being good, period, so we can move on. But he still generally stinks, there is no denying it. Quarterbacks can't control onside kicks and opposing backs running out of bounds when the game is basically over or the play of his defense or dumb fumbles or coverage breakdowns or guys making 60-yard field goals. … They are responsible for producing offensive points per drive and Tebow needs to get a lot better to even be average in this regard.

      Defenses bail Tebow out late in these games by

      Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Smoke and mirrors
    • Scouting Notebook: Tebow earns passing grade

      The key to fantasy football and to understanding life, really, is to learn to reason and to forget about rationalizing. I'm not going to fall into the trap of lawyering Tim Tebow(notes) here every week. We keep getting new data and that gets added to the mix and then we have to be reasonable enough to change our views, which always should be subject to change in light of more evidence.

      In short, Tebow won this game. It was the performance that all of his backers have been talking themselves into thinking he actually had when he did not. He made some plays other weeks, of course, but the sum of his performance in the Denver's other wins was decidedly negative relative to anything we should expect from a league-average QB on a per-game basis. Denver was winning despite him, due to great defense.

      The Vikings game, though, was different. It was the same Tebow we've seen in the first half – terrible. The read option was being destroyed by the Vikings just as it was by the Jets. But this

      Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Tebow earns passing grade
    • Football by the Numbers: Fantasy Matchups to Seek and Avoid

      These rankings are for the purpose of predicting how many fantasy points defenses will allow to offensive players this week. If you have questions relating to matchups, feel free to ask them via Twitter @MichaelSalfino. But don't ask me which fantasy defense to play – if that's your biggest problem, you're good. Generally, pick the defense that's facing the team that's allowed the highest sack rate and/or scored the fewest real-life points. All else is pure guess work.

      This week's highlighted matchups follow after the chart. But first a word about the categories. Only "Red Zone" is a little tricky. We're not talking efficiency there, but rather red zone possessions allowed. Red Zone Possessions have proven over many years to be more useful in predicting future defensive performances. Plus there's too much overlap with the TD rates we look at. RYPG is rushing yards per game. RTD/G is rushing TDs per game. PYPG is passing yards per game. PTD/G is passing TDs/per game. Obviously, yardage

      Read More »from Football by the Numbers: Fantasy Matchups to Seek and Avoid
    • Scouting Notebook: Helu again

      We're going to get into more Tim Tebow(notes) Time shortly. But we have to start this week with Stevie Johnson(notes) mocking Plaxico Burress(notes) for shooting himself in a touchdown celebration that cost his team 15 yards and set up an ensuing touchdown and then, karmically, dropping a pass in the final minute that likely would have been a game-winning catch and run, given no one was near him. Next time, he should shoot himself in the foot. Or maybe shoot his mouth off.

      People saying he got the best of Darrelle Revis(notes) are kidding themselves. He had 75 yards on 13 targets – which is 5.76 yards per target (terrible). The Jets were in zone on his drop, so call it 6.25 yards per target versus Revis which is still awful.

      Roy Helu(notes) is going to be a name we hear a lot about for years to come unless injury intervenes. He is fast, runs decisively and with power and is a dynamite receiver. Plus, he stands up against safeties and linebackers who blitz. He really looks like the

      Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Helu again
    • Scouting Notebook: Hunky Torrey

      As Abraham Lincoln once famously said, "A nation divided against Tim Tebow(notes) cannot stand." So here's my compromise of 2011: Let Tebow play the last five minutes so his believers still get Tebow Time and that way the rest of us don't have to be sickened by Terrible Tim for the other 55 minutes of his games.

      A serious element to Tebow's play that has implications for how we project the broader population of quarterbacks is whether to focus on the vast majority of his plays or on the handful of plays where he's played well at the end of games. In many ways, he's the Bizarro Tony Romo(notes), who is excellent most plays but who has inexplicably struggled in key moments of some games (that his detractors selectively remember). Just so you know that it's nothing personal against Tebow, I've been one of Romo's biggest supporters because I believe that you project based on the largest samples of data.

      Tebow's problem is his inability to throw the football with the requisite touch, timing

      Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Hunky Torrey
    • Scouting Notebook: Giant mistake

      Why do the Giants continue to emphasize a running game that on its best day will average 4.0 yards per carry when your QB is averaging 8.0 per pass attempt? This is like taking your pocket knife to a gun fight. Trying out your kickboxing moves. Pass early so you can run late. But the Giants don't believe that Eli Manning(notes) is great despite mounting evidence that supports this. If so, why would they always worry about the other team's quarterback or running game or defense. Just let Manning do his thing.

      Friend and colleague Scott Pianowski sort of called a Frank Gore(notes) injury earlier this week. My thought was that all backs are about equal injury risks. That's an all-time record for me being wrong.

      I figured there was a 20 percent chance that Arian Foster(notes) was a flash in the pan and a 20 percent chance that his hamstring injury would linger. But the guy is just incredible. He's like Eric Dickerson with hands. But Dickerson was a No. 2 overall pick, not some undrafted

      Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Giant mistake
    • Scouting Notebook: Gimmicks don't last

      While I hope unlike last week a few words about Tim Tebow(notes) doesn't become the primary focus of this piece, his believers get to laugh today. But the disbelievers like me will laugh last, I still maintain.

      Here's the bottom line with him – he's started five games and completed more than 50 percent of his throws one time. That's 20 percent. Prior to Week 9 since 2009, NFL teams have completed more than 50 percent of his passes 1,095 out of 1,256 times – that's 87.2 percent. He's thus the epitome of a gimmick quarterback and like the Wildcat, gimmicks don't last long in this league.

      As for the rest of the slate …

      DeMarco Murray(notes) is that rare back who may avoid situational substitutions. But there is no guarantee that the Cowboys won't put Felix Jones(notes) back into the mix when he's capable of playing due to the stupid, "You can't lose your job to injury" rule that some teams have. Why can't you? The better guy should play whenever he's capable of playing, period. That's the

      Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Gimmicks don't last
    • Scouting Notebook: No Pat answer

      I take strong stances here, but I have to say I love to be wrong because that's when you learn things. And what fun would it be if we could sit back and know everything that happened? There's such a wide variance in performance from week to week and so many moving parts on both teams that at times we can't even deconstruct what happened after the fact.

      The thing I really got wrong this week and especially when taking Twitter questions to @MichaelSalfino wasn't controversial or contrarian enough to make a big deal about. The Steelers defense just couldn't match up against the Patriots offense. That seemed written in the stars. Oops. I have to watch the short cuts on Tuesday to get at the bottom of it. But the Steelers controlled the game and the ball all day. Meanwhile, Tom Brady(notes) looked out of sorts, which we're not used to seeing. And their defense couldn't get off the field and will have their hands full with the Giants and Eli Manning(notes) next week though they get a big

      Read More »from Scouting Notebook: No Pat answer

    Pagination

    (221 Stories)