Elite skills translate into elite production and fantasy stats. For pitchers, the best way to measure skills is to look at the pitches in their repertoire and assess how dominant they rank by measuring how frequently batters swing and miss at them.

Our first fastball list is dominated by relievers, mostly because relievers throw relatively few pitches per outing and thus can put more effort into each one. So we've supplemented it in the text that follows.

It's an axiom that most of baseball (75 percent) is pitching and thus we are all conditioned to believe that ultimately pitchers control outcomes when it comes to the matchups versus hitters.

But the conventional wisdom is wrong. There's little debate among statheads that it's hitters who generally have the most influence over what happens in an at bat. The trick is to isolate the exceptions to the rule – the pitchers who through their talent take most control over their pitching destiny.

A simple way to identify these pitchers, I think, is to look at how they perform against No. 3 hitters – since most teams place their best hitter in that spot. Last year, No. 3 hitters MLB-wide sported an on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) of .805 vs. the MLB average of .720 (No. 4 hitters compiled a .791 OPS). Of course, there are sample size caveats and some pitchers, due to unbalanced schedules, faced weak-hitting teams that also have relatively weak-hitting No. 3 hitters. Still, I'd much

The supposedly sabermetrically savvy are outsmarting themselves when it comes to fly ball pitchers.

Let's start with the king of all the new-age pitching stats – batting average on balls in play (BABIP, but if you pronounce that as one word, you are a dork). I like the stat, generally. Our pitching projections can be much sharper as a result of it. But it's not only less useful in projecting extreme fly ball pitchers, it's actually harmful.

The reason is that fly ball pitchers should be expected to have a much lower BABIP than league average for the simple reason that fly balls are significantly less likely to become hits than grounders. How less likely can be gleaned from this chart of the most extreme fly ball pitchers in baseball last year (minimum 20 starts):

Kicking off this year's first Pitching by the Numbers is analysis inspired by Tampa Bay Rays righty Jeremy Hellickson, he of the declining strikeout rate and – largely due to that – a reportedly "very lucky" 2011 ERA (2.95 actual and 4.72 expected, says Fangraphs).

I find this K- and FIP (Fielding Independent)-ERA-driven analysis of Hellickson a little lazy. Wasn't this guy the bedeviling Hellboy just a year ago? Isn't his strikeout resume aside from 2011 top-shelf at all professional levels? There is no denying the K-rate dipped last year. When trying to work all this out with Yahoo! colleague Scott Pianowski in a backstage phone call, we both wondered why someone can't figure out a way to estimate K-rate like they do ERA. Could Hellickson's K-rate last year have been unlucky?

It struck me that percentage of swings that miss would be a good proxy. And it turned out that Fangraphs's Bradley Woodrum had a similar idea earlier. But my methodology is different and is focused precisely on

This Scouting Notebook wraps up 2011 – a great year with lots of passionate debate that I've very much enjoyed. We'll be back next summer with more football coverage. Until then, feel free to contact me with gridiron grumblings via Twitter @MichaelSalfino. And happy holidays and best wishes in 2012.

Horrible news in Washington where Adrian Peterson is lost with a torn ACL and there are now questions about him for 2012, of course, but beyond, too. We hope he returns as the same player with the same explosiveness, but we should all assume until there is proof otherwise that he will not. It could be worse, I guess, but reports are that Peterson has a torn MCL, too. So even as far as ACLs go, this is bad.

John Skelton knows how to get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald. The more uncertain the quarterback, the better the volume for the freak wide receiver. Better QBs will just take advantage of heavy coverages by throwing to whoever is open because they have the skill and confidence to scan the

This will be the last matchup piece of the season. Thanks for following it and I hope it helped you navigate this very challenging fantasy season. Appreciate the feedback here and via Twitter @MichaelSalfino and look forward to doing it all over again next season. Until then, Happy Holidays and Happy New Year.

These rankings are for the purpose of predicting how many fantasy points defenses will allow to offensive players this week. This week's highlighted matchups follow after the chart. But first a word about the categories. Only "Red Zone" is a little tricky. We're not talking efficiency there, but rather red zone possessions allowed. Red Zone Possessions have proven over many years to be more useful in predicting future defensive performances. Plus there's too much overlap with the TD rates we look at. RYPG is rushing yards per game. RTD/G is rushing TDs per game. PYPG is passing yards per game. PTD/G is passing TDs/per game. Obviously, yardage allowed is more reliable than

This was the "Any Given Sunday" Sunday. Let's dissect in the Scouting Notebook. Remember to send me any questions, comments, pro-Tim Tebow tirades/eternal damnation threats to me via Twitter @MichaelSalfino.

Since Reggie Bush was drafted in 2006, there have been 380 games where a back has had at least 25 carries. Bush hadn't been one of them until Sunday. He made the most of these extra touches, topping 200 rushing yards. He's only going to be 27 next season, younger than Michael Bush and DeAngelo Williams and only six months older than Chris Johnson. Where does he get drafted in '12? He's an injury risk, but every running back is that. Let's put him comfortably in the top 36.

I really thought that this was Tebow's best game. I'm not going to be a hypocrite about it. It doesn't matter to me that the Broncos lost just like it didn't matter to me that the Broncos won his other games. Tebow threw the ball better than I've seen and also had by far his best game as a runner (where he's been

We have to start with a quarterback who doesn't play well but who shows a lot of moxie when it matters most and continues to lead his team to victories despite spending most of his Sundays looking like anything but a competent NFL signal caller. That T.J. Yates is really something, isn't he?

Yeah, we have to talk about Tim Tebow again. Is it interesting or just boring how he enables everyone to plausibly continue to think what they think about him? Personally, I'd settle for him proving me wrong by just being good, period, so we can move on. But he still generally stinks, there is no denying it. Quarterbacks can't control onside kicks and opposing backs running out of bounds when the game is basically over or the play of his defense or dumb fumbles or coverage breakdowns or guys making 60-yard field goals. … They are responsible for producing offensive points per drive and Tebow needs to get a lot better to even be average in this regard.

Defenses bail Tebow out late in these games by