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    Michael Salfino

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    Michael Salfino provides quantitative player and team analysis for the Wall Street Journal and Yahoo! Sports.

    • Scouting Notebook: Thomas enters elite class

      Getting this out quick before Hurricane Sandy hits here in New Jersey. Best wishes to the millions in the mid-Atlantic who will battle this vicious storm this week. Please stay safe and check in on loved ones.

      Demaryius Thomas, most valuable fantasy WR? (AP)We start in Denver where Demaryius Thomas is the receiver I would take right now before any other for the rest of the season. The Broncos schedule is soft, Thomas is a freak, Peyton Manning is at the top of his game. What's not to love?

      Robert Griffin III had his first really disappointing day against a Steelers defense that many, including me, thought was a shadow of its former self. Of course, RGIII is not blessed with elite receivers. Leonard Hankerson dropped a touchdown pass, but RGIII threw one later on that drive anyway. Still, the Redskins entered the game top 10 all time in average gain per play so expect him to continue to be productive, especially on the ground – where he was uncharacteristically quiet in Pittsburgh.

      You would think that Jonathan Dwyer played Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Thomas enters elite class
    • Scouting Notebook: Critiquing Cam

      Cam Newton's post-game comments matter little in fantasy football. (Getty)Cam Newton does have bad body language. The big sweater in the post-game press conference was stupid, too – what was it, 72 degrees today in Charlotte? But why does this concern us? He's not getting benched. And it's doubtful that even his performance next week will be adversely impacted by his post-game remarks this week. I'm not saying it doesn't matter, but quantifying these psychological issues is like asking, "How many angels can dance on a head of a pin?" Let's stick to just quantifying his performance, which is hard enough. While not perfect and not winning, it's not bad, either – especially for a second-year player.

      Chris Johnson is no slouch. He's far from a perfect back. He's a lot like Barry Sanders in needing volume and the hit-or-miss aspect of his game is whether he's going to get those big runs randomly (more or less) in the early carries. If he does, he'll gouge any defense, not just the putrid Bills. Remember, he had 141 at Houston and 91 in Week 6 against the Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Critiquing Cam
    • Scouting Notebook: Pass-happy Pats

      Looks like the big news of the week is going to be the status of DeMarco Murray (foot sprain). He seems to think he's fine, just like Cedric Benson thought last week. But like me with these foot injuries, you should only believe the MRIs. In the meantime, get Felix Jones, who has a lot of ability/explosiveness and can sort of turn the tables on Murray exactly the way Murray did to him last year.

      Speaking of Benson, the early returns on Sunday night made it pretty clear that Alex Green, and only Green, is the guy to get in Green Bay. I never bought the James Starks talk, mostly because he's hurt with turf toe and it's hard to ever be 100 percent in the same season after that.

      Tom Brady racked up the frequent flier miles in a loss to Seattle.Shocking loss for the Patriots given how that game was going early. Tom Brady was too loose with the football today. I think passing is like a habit. When you de-emphasize it, you lose sharpness. I say, get hot by throwing and stay hot by throwing more when you're the Patriots. You can run in the second half Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Pass-happy Pats
    • Scouting Notebook: Rashard returns

      Rashard Mendenhall came back in Week 5 with a vengeance and the lesson is that torn ACLs are no longer a big deal. They're like torn elbows with pitchers. Expect a nine-month hiatus and a full recovery.

      Rashard Mendenhall made a strong return from his ACL injury in Week 5.Not only did Mendenhall's knee look 100 percent on that burst down the sideline after catching that swing pass/lateral, but he had 101 yards on just 16 touches – not including a 21-yard run lost when Mike Wallace lined up incorrectly at snap.

      Another back on everyone's radar this year is Alex Green of Green Bay, who I thought would have won the job by now. But Cedric Benson's injury finally paved the way. However, at press time Benson's injury was thought to be minor. Either way, pick Green up. He showed versatility and decent pass blocking and, of course, good running – especially on a 41-yarder on a key fourth-quarter drive where he hit the hole and then made multiple defenders miss.

      Jordy Nelson owners like me are ticked off about James Jones. Some guys just are not good Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Rashard returns
    • Scouting Notebook: Redskin on a roll

      Going into the week, I thought we were finally going to get crystal clarity on the always very controversial (at least when I'm touting him) Alfred Morris. After all, the Bucs were allowing only 46 rushing yards per game on little more than two yards per carry.

      The primary reason why I liked Morris so much, so early was that Robert Griffin III and the Pistol Formation (and all other similar tricks) would make any back in this system very dangerous. I also believed this makes Morris a matchup-defying runner. So who cares, for example, if Tampa Bay has a tough run defense against everyone else because that's not likely to be predictive against Washington.

      Morris's great day confirms this and makes him a lower-end RB1 or a high-end RB2 for the rest of the season – in other words, a low first round pick in a re-draft. While he caught a pass, those will not come often and are a drag on his scoring. But he gains so much more from RGIII. Plus he has good ability – not elite, by any Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Redskin on a roll
    • Scouting Notebook: MoJo on a roll

      Boy, Maurice Jones-Drew is really showing the effects of that long holdout. But don't worry, if he breaks a leg in Week 14, people will blame the holdout. And please do not tell me that Rashard Jennings would have gotten a timeshare if he stayed healthy at the expense of a first-team All-NFL back.

      Andre Brown is a top 10-to-15 among backs if Ahmad Bradshaw is out. If Bradshaw is healthy, slot Brown 25-to-30. He's the new, improved Brandon Jacobs when Bradshaw returns. Expect Bradshaw to have slightly higher value if both are healthy.

      The first half on Sunday did not go well for Stevan Ridley owners, as Bill Belichick went total Sybil with his running backs. But the market has bought into Ridley so expect the response to be muted. If Mike Shanahan did anything like this to lowly Alfred Morris, imagine the volume of the I-told-you-so outcries/guffaws.

      Given current market conditions, sell high on Doug Martin. (AP)And that ties in nicely to a Twitter debate with the highly recommended @SigmundBloom of FootballGuys.com regarding the relative Read More »from Scouting Notebook: MoJo on a roll
    • Scouting Notebook: Ben caught stealing

      Sunday was a bad day for Arian Foster owners. Ben Tate is going to be involved significantly, it seems, and that's no surprise because he's really good and continues to nearly lap Foster in yards per rush, which is pretty important.

      I threw Trent Richardson under the bus last week. Being an expert merely means you've made every mistake that can be made in a very narrow field. I clearly made one here. But I didn't make one on Richardson as much as I did on Brandon Weeden. He was the key to Richardson's value Sunday as he moved the chains and allowed Richardson the touches he needs to thrive.

      But Alfred Morris is for real and should be viewed as a top 15 back going forward. For how long, who knows. Next week, for sure. The Bengals clearly are a struggling defense at the moment.

      Steven Jackson ran into trouble in Week 2. (AP)I also preferred Morris to Steven Jackson and now Jackson, who actually ran pretty well, is hurt. The troubles started with him unable to convert a score from an easy distance, a career-long problem for Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Ben caught stealing
    • Football by the Numbers: Defense power rankings

      These rankings are for the purpose of predicting how many fantasy points defenses will allow to offensive players this week.

      Yes, it's early. But we weight the rankings 75 percent for last year and just 25 percent for Week 1. This way, they can be better relied upon when choosing among players that you believe are generally close in value.

      If you have other questions relating to matchups, feel free to ask them via Twitter @MichaelSalfino. I cannot emphasize enough that these defensive rankings have nothing to do with which defense to play in fantasy.

      This week's highlighted matchups follow after the chart. But first a word about the categories. Only "Red Zone" is a little tricky. We're not talking efficiency there, but rather red zone possessions allowed. Red Zone Possessions have proven over many years to be more useful in predicting future defensive performances. RYPG is rushing yards per game. RTD/G is rushing TDs per game. PYPG is passing yards per game. PTD/G is passing Read More »from Football by the Numbers: Defense power rankings
    • Scouting Notebook: Morris makes his mark

      Week 1 always means really bad news for some owners due to the dreaded early KO of a high draft pick. But, on the flip side, there is also ample opportunity for owners considering that unexpected stars always emerge from the depths of the waiver wire. The question: Will they burn brightly or die out fast?

      Alfred Morris has quickly moved into a higher class of fantasy RBs. (AP)Maybe Alfred Morris is still available in your league. I told you to get him last week though. So why did you wait? We had made an educated guess and then about 95 percent confirmed it mid-week thanks to some sleuthing by my friend and colleague, the NFL Network's Aditi Kinkhabwala (@akinkhabwala) who was on site with Washington at the key moment. But whether you own him or can claim him, what's he actually worth?

      I would not be a seller. He had 28 carries in a Mike Shanahan offense with a running QB who sure looks like he will move the chains at will. This is an elite set-up. In non-PPR, definitely Morris over Steven Jackson. Depending on how you score catches, I can see keeping Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Morris makes his mark
    • Scouting Notebook: August observations

      Typically, you get my fantasy notes here before the ink is dry on the football week every Sunday night. But there were no games that mattered this week. So let's instead go to the virtual notebook from the month of August via my Twitter feed (@MichaelSalfino).

      No one knows what Adrian Peterson is going to be tho post-ACL, or when.

      Looks like 2007 was ground zero for running back committees. From 2000-2006, 17.1 RB/year with 250-plus carries. Since, 11.4. So don't expect more than 12 backs this year to have 250-plus carries. It's clearly not just injuries but due to the new design of the modern running game. Don't think AP will be one of them.

      I'll fade Fred Jackson at his ADP because the list of running backs productive at age 31 is very, very short. Also do not like projecting a heavy workload on a 31-year-old back who hasn't had one before.

      I don't know if the Chiefs offense is going to be productive enough to support one fantasy running back, never mind two.

      The bad August Read More »from Scouting Notebook: August observations

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