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    Michael Salfino

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    Michael Salfino provides quantitative player and team analysis for the Wall Street Journal and Yahoo! Sports.

    • Pitching by the Numbers: Model starters, Part 1

      While it’s generally wise to wait to draft starting pitching in fantasy baseball, that doesn’t mean it’s unimportant.

      In fact, it’s the owners who find the most bang for the buck with their pitching selections who generally win leagues. And there’s a lot of bang to be found. Quite simply, the reason why we wait to draft pitching is that the opinions on them are so varied. There’s convergence of opinion on hitters. So if you merely take the highest ranked hitter in your queue when it’s your turn to draft, you’ll be fine. That’s also the reason why we have to draft hitters before pitchers. The ones we’re projecting to be good are usually projected to be good by everyone.

      [Also: Dodgers pitcher Zach Greinke feels 'pretty good' after throwing session]

      But pitching is different. Here, there’s divergence of opinion. Many times, you’ll disagree vehemently that the top pitcher in the queue is the best one – and rightfully so. But the risk is that given all this divergence, we’ll

      Read More »from Pitching by the Numbers: Model starters, Part 1
    • Football by the Numbers: Matchup Decider

      These rankings are for the purpose of predicting how many fantasy points defenses will allow to offensive players this week.

      If you have other questions relating to matchups, feel free to ask them via Twitter @MichaelSalfino. I cannot emphasize enough that these defensive rankings have nothing to do with which defense to play in fantasy.

      This week's highlighted matchups follow after the chart. But first a word about the categories. Only "Red Zone" is a little tricky. We're not talking efficiency there, but rather red zone possessions allowed. Red zone possessions have proven over many years to be more useful in predicting future defensive performances. RYPG is rushing yards per game. RTD/G is rushing TDs per game. PYPG is passing yards per game. PTD/G is passing TDs/per game. Yardage allowed is more reliable than touchdowns allowed for predictive purposes. Ideally, the two correlate. But some teams really can be break but don't bend, e.g., teams that blitz a lot.

      Defensive PowerRead More »from Football by the Numbers: Matchup Decider
    • Scouting Notebook: Bryant's baggage

      Dez Bryant is a monster right now, raising questions of where he should be drafted in 2013. I've been very down on him given that his off-field lack of discipline seemed to find its way on the field, too, in the form of maddening inconsistency that could only be attributed to a lack of care/focus. This is a game where talent triumphs, though. And Bryant's gifts take a back seat to no one's, including Megatron's. But you also have to acknowledge that Bryant can fall apart for many reasons at any time. Given that it will probably take a first-round pick to land him in 2013, I'd still have to pass.

      Christian Ponder underutilized Adrian Peterson's receiving skills this season. (Getty)Adrian Peterson is clearly the fantasy MVP if not the NFL one (that's reserved for quarterbacks on merit). But he did little favor for his owners in Week 16, getting stymied by the Texans run defense. Peterson did next to nothing as a receiver (one catch for four yards). And he's averaging less yards on his 39 catches (5.5) than he is rushing (6.0). I place the blame for that squarely on the Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Bryant's baggage
    • Scouting Notebook: Hawks' Wilson soars

      Russell Wilson: Top 12 QB for '13. (Getty)The missing piece for Russell Wilson all year has been productivity via the ground, which was the one thing we all felt was most certain in August. Against the Bills on Sunday, Wilson cemented his status as a top 12 quarterback in 2013 by rushing for 92 yards and three scores. That boosts his year-to-date total of rushing yards to over 400. And, oh yeah, another ho-hum 100-plus QB Rating day, his seventh of the year and one short of Ben Roethlisberger's rookie record (Robert Griffin III also has seven). But before we get too excited, Pat Haden had five for the Rams in 1975, when a 100 rating really meant something special. I'll say that it's about 25 percent that Wilson regresses next year in fantasy production (higher in rating of course), 50 percent that he stays about as productive and 25 percent that he improves.

      The Steelers have really struggled in pass defense of late so the performance of Tony Romo and his receivers shouldn't have been a big surprise. But it was a pleasure Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Hawks' Wilson soars
    • Scouting Notebook: Cam gets his groove back

      Cam Newton has turned things around after a rough start to the season. (Getty)Cam Newton's tremendous Week 14 shows, perhaps too late for many of his owners, that yards per pass attempt is bettable when it is high despite sub-par touchdown totals. Newton has been about 8.0 in YPA all year and now the touchdown production is elite, too, as he continues the type of productivity run only his most bullish supporters envisioned.

      Denarius Moore's struggles since his hot stretch were predictable, I believe now (as I did then), because he's just the latest mid-level wide receiver struggling with his own limitations in the harsh face of stardom. Okay, that's the last Almost Famous reference for the week after Scott Pianowski and I dropped a bunch in our latest Breakfast Table.

      But it is an apt metaphor. Once you have a run like Moore, teams focus on stopping you and only the special talents or receivers with special quarterbacks (who make defenses pay for focusing too much on anyone, stopping them from that) can overcome.

      BenJarvis Green-Ellis has had a good run Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Cam gets his groove back
    • Scouting Notebook: Twice is nice for Bryce

      Well, I guess Bryce Brown is for real and who knows when LeSean McCoy will be back. But remember, you have to pick running backs first in your drafts because it's impossible to find one on the free agent wire once the season starts. Brown's fumble this week was more bad luck where the guy just got all ball on a punch. Not all fumbles are equal when allocating ball-carrier blame. The idea that you can put two hands on the ball on every carry is insanely stupid.

      Brown is the second player to rush for 150-plus yards in his first two starts and also the second Brown (Gary).

      Russell Wilson: Circle of trust? (Getty)Russell Wilson is another big Week 13 story. He just ripped the Bears defense apart and for the second week in a row showed the wheels we expected to not only extend plays but get easy yards and first downs. He has six games with a 100-plus QB rating now, including four in a row. That tied Ben Roethlisberger for the most by a rookie in NFL history (Robert Griffin III has five). Wilson needs to find the end zone on Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Twice is nice for Bryce
    • Scouting Notebook: Gold exchange

      The 49ers have handed the reins of the offense over to Colin Kaepernick. (Getty)Colin Kaepernick is the hot commodity in fantasy football. It's very clear now that the Niners have benched Alex Smith despite a 104 passer rating and all the success he's had under Jim Harbaugh. It's terribly unfair to Smith but we can all see that San Francisco is much tougher to defend with Kaepernick running the offense.

      So much for Kaepernick's chemistry with Vernon Davis, though. This is a coaching issue, not a quarterback issue. The Niners refuse to move Davis around and create mismatches and some tough choices for the defense. This will hurt them against better teams like the Packers and Giants.

      The referees played a big role in Week 12 with a couple of calls that don't pass the smell test.

      Blame the league for the stupid penalty rule that eliminates a review when a coach throws the challenge flag on a scoring play. Though it couldn't happen to a more deserving jerk than Jim Schwartz. But if that rule was motioned in our fantasy leagues, no one would second it because it'sRead More »from Scouting Notebook: Gold exchange
    • Scouting Notebook: Perfect game

      We may have just witnessed the best real-life quarterbacking game in NFL history by Robert Griffin III. And it clearly had major fantasy football implications, too. But it's very symmetrically satisfying when reality tracks our fantasy fortunes this way.

      Robert Griffin III had one of the all-time greatest QB performances on Sunday. (Getty)Sure, there have been better fantasy football days. But look at what Griffin did on Sunday against a decent Philadelphia defense: 14-for-15 for 200 yards, on the button, and four touchdowns – plus 85 yards rushing on 11 carries. That's a perfect rating, obviously. In NFL history, RGIII is the first quarterback to ever have a perfect rating and over 80 yards rushing. The best two-way day ever had been by Ken Anderson of the Bengals vs. the Colts in 1974 (17-for-21 for 297 yards and three TDs, perfect 158.3, and 62 yards on six carries).

      How does it feel, Rob Gronkowksi owners, to have your player get hurt (broken forearm) when the Patriots are running it up like they are jockeying for a BCS ranking? Colleague Mark Stopa of Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Perfect game
    • Scouting Notebook: Spiller is special

      C.J. Spiller's 7.26 yards per rush is the most for any running back with 87 or more carries since Skeet Quinlan of the Rams averaged 7.27 yards on 97 totes for the 1953 Los Angeles Rams. All this has earned him 39 attempts the last four games to 47 for Fred Jackson (4.0 yards per carry for the year).

      But Quinlan didn't have the most carries on the Rams that year, either. To the chagrin of the fantasy football world of 1953, Hall of Famer Dan Towler was given 152 carries that year. Quinlan's Strat card rocked, though. And, like Spiller this year, his rating was also bumped up in Madden ('54). My guess is that it doesn't matter what Spiller does on the field because the better it is, the more the Bills will just use that elite performance as evidence that Spiller is getting exactly the right amount of touches.

      And I know that Jackson is good and deserves to play in a world where all things are basically equal, but they are not equal in Buffalo.

      Calvin Johnson owners, your long Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Spiller is special
    • Scouting Notebook: Rookies gone wild

      Rookies were the story in Week 9. Doug Martin had a day for the ages with 251 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Andrew Luck set a rookie record with 433 passing yards.

      I use models when making predictions and history said backs with Martin's yards per rush after six weeks were not going to significantly improve as rookies. He's proven to be the exception to the rule. Models aside, you see the elite skills. He has perfect size – the fifth highest body mass index among running backs according to Pro-Football-Reference.com – and solid speed. But his most impressive trait of late is patience in setting up his runs. The game suddenly seemed to slow down for him. And the Bucs passing game is a big help because it's so explosive that safeties can't play in the box.

      Andrew Luck set a record for passing yards by a rookie on Sunday. (Getty Images)Luck, though, is not even the most valuable rookie quarterback for our purposes. That's still Robert Griffin III, despite the very disappointing Week 9 versus the Panthers. Unlike Martin, Luck is merely solid and unlikely to Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Rookies gone wild

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