You can find more from Michael Salfino at NESN
We're going to do something in this column that you'll rarely see an expert do – examine failure. By that I mean, predictions gone awry.
Failure is an unavoidable product of risk taking and making early calls on players, calls that in most cases vary significantly from general market view. The buy low and sell high strategy implicitly acknowledges the inevitability of failure by fixing a lower cost on it.
A recent book, "Dance with Chance" (Markridakis, Hogarth, Gaba), focuses on business but offers great insight into the role expert advice should play in decision making.
There are no formulas or tricks that guarantee success. No one can absorb your uncertainty and help you realize that dream of total control and predictive infallibility.
Demand from your experts state-of-the-art knowledge, independent thinking and due diligence in research as if every player discussed was their own. Even then, though, we are merely informing yourRead More »from By the Numbers: Extreme failure