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    Michael Salfino

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    Michael Salfino provides quantitative player and team analysis for the Wall Street Journal and Yahoo! Sports.

    • Scouting Notebook: Pack sacked

      You can find more from Michael Salfino at Comcast SportsNet Philadelphia

      I was wearing out my No. 2 pencils during this very big Week 9, which marks the turning point of the season and the beginning of every fantasy football championship chase. So here's an expanded Scouting Notebook.

      The Packers lost to Tampa Bay because they continue to be unable to protect Aaron Rodgers(notes). Green Bay has scored on 37 percent of drives where they haven't allowed a sack but on just three percent of the drives (one total) when they do. Tampa Bay had six sacks Sunday despite entering the game with just 11 all year. I'd be moving Aaron Rodgers everywhere. Odds are good that he'll be carted off well before opposing defenses register the 74 sacks for which they are on pace.

      Josh Freeman(notes) showed great touch on the game-winning TD pass and then great patience in finding a third option on the two-point conversion.

      The Chargers have to stop wasting time with LaDainian Tomlinson(notes). Giving him 12

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    • Scouting Notebook: Moats operandi

      You can find more from Michael Salfino at Comcast SportsNet Chicago

      The Owen Daniels(notes) knee injury is the biggest news coming out of Week 8. He's done for the year with a torn ACL.

      The game was disastrous for fantasy owners who own Steve Slaton(notes) for other reasons. We've been warning you for weeks in this Scouting Notebook about his fumbling problems and advising you to sell high. Now, it's too late. He was benched in the first quarter and Ryan Moats(notes), who once was viewed as very interesting Brian Westbrook(notes) insurance, excelled. Moats, who is just 5-foot-8, 210 pounds, was given goal-line work and scored three fourth quarter TDs in addition to 151 yards from scrimmage. He's the No. 1 waiver pickup this week. Slaton owners: expect Gary Kubiak to give your boy another chance.

      Knowshon Moreno(notes) owners shouldn't worry about his latest lost fumble, as it was caused by a fierce hit by Ravens safety Ed Reed(notes) a split second after Moreno established possession.

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    • Scouting Notebook: Hakeem living the dream

      You can find more from Michael Salfino at NESN

      Let's start with Sunday night as we open up our Week 7 Scouting Notebook.

      Hakeem Nicks(notes) has now surpassed Domenik Hixon as No. 3 receiver, which gets him on the field for all passing downs and makes him flex-worthy in deeper leagues. He's capitalized on injury, deflections and garbage time in this nice run of games, but there's no denying the talent.

      Tony Sparano, listen up: when the Saints, of all teams, are settling for a field goal with five seconds left after a challenge took a TD off the board, let them kick it. Drew Brees(notes) talked Sean Payton out of the three after Sparano's timeout and Brees snuck it in for six on the next snap, completely altering the course of the game.

      Pierre Thomas(notes) is now a flex play at best. The past two weeks, 10 Saints have scored. But not Thomas. Brees gets bigger carries now than Thomas. I lean toward playing Mike Bell(notes) now over Thomas. Bell at least is on the field during goal-line

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    • Scouting Notebook: For whom Bell tolls

      You can find more from Michael Salfino at SNY.tv

      Let's focus heavily on the Big Easy in this Week 6 Scouting Notebook, the theme of which is the rapid fluidity of this NFL season.

      Mike Bell(notes) is a goal-line vulture for Pierre Thomas(notes) at least. Maybe more. Reggie Bush(notes) gets the preference in the passing game. This leaves a much smaller piece for Thomas than his owners hoped. We can forecast the player and the environment with some insight. But how the player is used is more of a guessing game. It looks like I guessed right in August and wrong when revising that upwards after Mike Bell's injury.

      Thomas owners shouldn't hit the bar tonight and cry in their beers until closing. He's getting the bulk of the run action and had five rushes inside the opposing 20 (two inside the opposing five). But it's not good when a putative lead fantasy back doesn't score on a day when seven different teammates do.

      The Saints offense is so fine that it's unlikely that the team will need to

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    • Scouting Notebook: Austin limits

      You can find more from Michael Salfino at Comcast SportsNet Washington

      Miles Austin(notes) heads up this week's expanded Scouting Notebook, as we focus on players whose valuations may reasonably change in light of the Week 5 action.

      Austin had a Cowboys record 250 receiving yards and caught two long TDs, the final one in overtime. But he also dropped two TD passes and had another one sail through his hands in the end zone. What now for Austin? He's not going to be in the X-position when Roy Williams gets back next week. So don't dare trade for his numbers. But if he's free as in free agent, go for it.

      I'm tired of looking at Jerry Jones' stretched skin in the press box. Is that required in the NFL TV contract? Worst face-lift ever, by the way. Men: don't get face-lifts.

      Deeper thinkers can still grab Hakeem Nicks(notes) of the Giants. Beyond the box score, Nicks looked best on a long completion down the left sideline when he arm-barred and beat Raiders Pro Bowl corner Nnamdi Asomugha

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    • Scouting Notebook: Scene Steeler

      You can find more from Michael Salfino at Comcast SportsNet Philadelphia.

      Let's open up the Week 4 Scouting Notebook.

      I've always been a fan of Rashard Mendenhall(notes), not because I'm so smart but simply because the Steelers rarely whiff on a first-round pick. I trust they know more than me. A lot of experts have had fun bashing him hard and it will be interesting to see if they stick to their guns or hedge big time (bet the latter).

      Steve Slaton(notes) was benched briefly after a second quarter fumble and then redeemed himself by scoring twice. Ryan Moats(notes) looked pretty good and had a bit of a LeSean McCoy(notes) buzz once as an Eagle. He's the handcuff there after Chris Brown fumbled the game away in Week 3. I'd say to sell Slaton high if I could come up with someone to sell him for other than Pierre Thomas(notes), who no one could be dumb enough to still trade.

      Another big-name back who had a top-heavy day without the consistency we prefer from our backs is Matt Forte

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    • Baseball by the Numbers: Armed to rebound

      You can find more from Michael Salfino at Comcast SportsNet Washington

      Let's conclude our season-ending series on which players our stats consider to be lucky and unlucky by focusing on jinxed pitchers.

      To isolate pitching luck, we look at strand rate because, generally, pitcher success or failure here does not repeat year to year to the same degree as broader stats like strikeouts, walks and baserunners allowed. We also isolate the percentage of homers on fly balls for the same reason – wide variation from the league average of about 10.5 percent is common. And we assess a pitcher's defensive efficiency – the percentage of balls in play (not including homers) that become hits. The average batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is about .300.

      This year, we're also going to project the most disappointing extreme pitchers – those who were top 10 in highest ground ball and fly ball percentage. Our friend and colleague Gene McCaffrey of

      The objective with Portfolio S is to exploit the

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    • Scouting Notebook: Print the legend

      You can find more from Michael Salfino at Comcast SportsNet Chicago

      Let's get the jump on Week 4 by opening up the Scouting Notebook.

      We start in Minnesota. I understand that Brett Favre(notes) for the vast majority of this decade is like Ransom Stoddard at the end of "The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance." The media's treatment of Farve is best summed up by one of the most famous last lines in movie history – "When the legend becomes fact, print the legend." But in those final 90 seconds in Minnesota against a good Niners defense, the fact suddenly became the legend again. We thus tip our hat to one of the best throws you'll ever see. Heck of a catch by Greg Lewis(notes), too, to win the game with two seconds left.

      Another legend was struggling most of the day on Sunday in New England. Tom Brady(notes) was visibly frustrated, overthrowing Randy Moss(notes) once on a bomb, underthrowing him later and then having Moss drop another longer score. There's still some rust that needs to be

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    • Baseball by the Numbers: Dumb luck

      You can find more from Michael Salfino at SNY.tv.

      Let's continue our season-ending series on who our stats consider to be lucky and unlucky players by focusing today on jinxed hitters. Next week, to close our 2009 By the Numbers coverage, we focus on unlucky pitchers.

      To isolate hitting luck, we look at average with runners in scoring position (RISP) because, generally, hitters' success or failure here does not repeat year to year to the same degree as broader stats like batting average. We also isolate the percentage of homers on fly balls for hitters who should still be in their power prime. And we assess a hitter's batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which generally is about .300. Note, though, that balls in play (BIP) do not include homers (by definition, out of play).

      We do this to further my much considered but never attempted "Portfolio S" strategy. The idea is to draft a team based on last year's values as long as the players have remained starters and are not compromised

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    • Scouting Notebook: Beware of Revis

      You can find more from Michael Salfino at NESN

      Incredible individual performances highlighted Week 2 of the NFL season and we'll cover them and much more in my Scouting Notebook.

      You didn't want to be facing either Frank Gore(notes) or Chris Johnson, but I bet I'm not the only one who lined up against both of them like in the Yahoo! Friends and Family League.

      So much for Gore (ankle) having lost a step. His performance is even more devastating in distance scoring leagues (and all leagues should factor in length of touchdown). The Niners are a running-back friendly team with their defensive emphasis and conservative play calling. So I'd be holding with Gore. But I would trade Johnson for a more conventional No. 1 running back in leagues that don't factor in catches or length of TD.

      Don't worry about the Patriots offense for the same reason you shouldn't have been worried about the Texans. The Jets are monsters now and will destroy your fantasy dreams. Avoid them, but ignore what your

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