YOUR FRIENDS' ACTIVITY

    Michael Salfino

    • Like
    • Follow
    Author

    Michael Salfino provides quantitative player and team analysis for the Wall Street Journal and Yahoo! Sports.

    • Scouting Notebook: End of an era?

      We bid farewell this week to one of the all-time fantasy football greats while wishing everyone a Happy Thanksgiving, one hopefully accompanied by a double-serving of yards and touchdowns in Thursday's action.

      The circus eventually must leave town and it hung around for Brett Favre(notes) longer than it has for just about anyone ever. But it's packed up now for good and that can't escape his notice. He'll retire on Tuesday probably. And I'll spot in Tarvaris Jackson(notes) once or twice in the many deep leagues where I skim the waiver wire each week for QB help (too many starters and not enough reserve spots for anyone to carry two).

      Steven Jackson owners should be ticked. The Rams were seventh in the league with 3.7 red zone possessions per game heading into the Falcons game, when they added two more. Yet Jackson has three runs all year from inside the five. That's tied for 41st in football. Pierre Thomas(notes) has more! Sunday, game on the line, 2nd-and-goal from the 2-yard line and

      Read More »from Scouting Notebook: End of an era?
    • Scouting Notebook: QBs from the fringe

      An outbreak of waiver-wire quarterbacks suddenly turning into fantasy killers highlights our Week 10 Scouting Notebook.

      Jon Kitna(notes) just demolished the Giants – 327 yards on 13 completions. That's old-school AFL. And he lost another long one when Dez Bryant(notes) bobbled a catch while his shoulder skidded out of bounds. Kitna has been pretty good if you back out his picks that were deflected by his own receivers (at least three by my count). All the major Cowboys are back on the board.

      Matt Cassel(notes) was loving garbage time, typically not the fantasy factor we fear. We remember all the times we're beat by meaningless touchdowns but never bother to register the many more times we are not. In truth, prevent defenses generally work and most teams give up when it's hopeless. But Todd Haley's approach to calling plays was indistinguishable from what a Cassel or Dwayne Bowe(notes) owner would have done if given a headset.

      Man, Troy Smith(notes) is good. That Rams defense is not a

      Read More »from Scouting Notebook: QBs from the fringe
    • Fantasy Team Power Rankings

      Environment is the major key to fantasy football production. These rankings, updated weekly throughout the season, assess the foundation upon which fantasy football statistics rise (or fall). NFL offenses are ranked 1-through-32 based solely on 2010 performance in the following categories: red zone trips per game, third down conversion percentage, yards per rush attempt, yards per pass attempt, sack percentage allowed, rushing TDs per game and passing TDs per game. Also use these rankings to target weak offenses when selecting a fantasy defense for the coming week.

      Fantasy Team Offense Power Rankings
      Rank Team RZ/Game 3rd% YPC YPA Sack% TD/Run TD/Pass Total
      1 NY Giants (6-2) 3 21 6 4 6 2 1 43
      2 San Diego (4-5) 2 3 18 1 19 5 2 50
      3 New England (6-2) 3 5 15 14 10 5 8 60
      4 Indianapolis (5-3) 8 6 25 10 1 10 3 63
      5 Atlanta (6-2) 6 2 13 20 7 10 13 71
      6 New Orleans (6-3) 1 1 23 13 2 30 3 73
      7 Houston (4-4) 13 10 1 7 24 1 20 76
      8 Philadelphia (5-3) 13 7 2 11 28 5 13 79
      9
      Read More »from Fantasy Team Power Rankings
    • Scouting Notebook: Pop guns

      Two big-name passers helming suddenly punch-and-judy passing attacks highlight our Week 9 Scouting Notebook.

      We start in Carolina, where Drew Brees(notes) was decidedly pop-gun with his wide receivers averaging less than 10 yards per catch. Tom Brady(notes) similarly had his wideouts gain just 69 yards on seven catches. Unlike the again victorious Brees, Brady is coming off a disheartening loss in Cleveland.

      The buy for the Saints now is Julius Jones(notes), who has ability. Pierre Thomas(notes) doesn't seem to have a future in New Orleans with the team questioning his toughness coming off ankle injury after passing on giving him long-term security this summer.

      Before we get excited about the Bucs showing fight against the Falcons and thus defying the stat people (like me) who think they stink, let's note that the stats also say the Falcons are about average and thus overachieving, too.

      Tony Sparano spent the week trying to figure out ways to get Brandon Marshall(notes) the ball more

      Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Pop guns
    • Scouting Notebook: Buc up

      Fantasy points were at a premium in Week 8, especially for those having players toiling in the wind-swept New Meadowlands Stadium.

      LeGarrette Blount(notes) is the story in the Bucs-Cardinals game. Raheem Morris still refuses to anoint him the starter. But that's a meaningless distinction. Blount was undrafted due to character issues (punching an opponent after a game last year). But he would have been drafted by a team looking to use his inside running skills out of one-back formations. I'm mystified by the Bucs success, which is not supported by any statistics. Pick Blount up this week on waivers if you can. Trade value for him right now is 20-to-30th overall back and at that higher end, I'd definitely be a seller.

      Mike Tolbert(notes) looks set to steal Ryan Mathews'(notes) real carries in addition to goal-line ones after outplaying him once Mathews left with a cut face. Who would have thought that BenJarvis Green-Ellis would be a better fantasy option right now than a healthy

      Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Buc up
    • Scouting Notebook: Paying the Bills

      Ryan Fitzpatrick(notes) entered the week No. 1 in TD percentage (of total passes). How can the leader there not be playable at QB? Then he puts up four more scores – three to Lee Evans(notes) – against the Ravens (a declining defense, but still). Fitzpatrick is in the perfect high volume situation and is showing quality along with the quantity. If you missed out on Kyle Orton(notes), here he is again, new and improved.

      Darren McFadden's(notes) day has to be discounted a little because the Broncos front seven is made of paper mâché. But he's playing like a No. 1 pick – 150 yards per game and six TDs in five games. If you have him, you almost have to be in first place.

      Matt Ryan(notes) and Roddy White(notes) are making great music together but Tony Gonzalez(notes) is basically playing cowbell now in the Falcons' band, averaging just four catches per game of the mostly harmless variety.

      DeAngelo Williams(notes), Fred Taylor(notes) and Tiki Barber are only backs to average 4.5 yards or

      Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Paying the Bills
    • Scouting Notebook: Negative Chargers

      The NFL really seemed like a battlefield on Sunday and among the casualties are two big names whose immediate absence will certainly change the fantasy landscape next week and beyond. How long we won't know until mid-week. But it's here where we kick off our Week 6 Scouting Notebook.

      Antonio Gates(notes) and DeSean Jackson(notes) were the hottest players around. Gates is in a boot now with ankle and foot injuries. Jackson was KO'ed by a vicious helmet-to-helmet hit. Perhaps the penalty should be 15 yards and you are out as long as your victim is out.

      I give up on the Chargers. What happened to all that talk about making Ryan Mathews(notes) a featured back and wanting to run the ball? Without Gates, what better time to unleash your rookie beast. And why is Mike Tolbert(notes) the goal-line back? Mathews isn't big enough at 6-foot-0, 218 pounds?

      The Eagles fared much better without Jackson, whose concussion was described as "severe." Jeremy Maclin(notes) is a real playmaker. But for

      Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Negative Chargers
    • Scouting Notebook: Down in Dallas

      Let's do away with the preamble and get right down to business in dissecting the major doings in Week 5.

      Something is missing with Tony Romo(notes). He locked in on his receiver his last three passes and had two tipped and one intercepted. On 3rd-and-9, he had Felix Jones(notes) running out all alone for an easy first down as an outlet receiver with no defender within 10 yards of him. With Jones, that could be a TD. On fourth down, Jones came clean off a chip block again with no defender within 10 yards. Maybe the Titans close before the stripe. But why run that little jerk route with Jason Witten(notes) two plays in a row and throw it twice with a defender draped over him both times?

      Cowboy haters never get tired of seeing Romo sulk his way through those post-game press conferences. Tony, that newsboy cap you wear does not exude the tough-guy strength your leaderless team needs.

      The end zone celebration rule is stupid. We find out that handing the ball to a lineman triggers the flag

      Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Down in Dallas
    • Scouting Notebook: Woe is the toe

      You can't wait for the season to come to you, you have to go out and grab it – even with only three games worth of data. Let's review where we've seen enough and where caution is more in order – though caution is not our style here in the Scouting Notebook.

      Jahvid Best's(notes) toe injury is a real concern considering his running style and home surface. Do not underestimate the impact this could have no matter what initial reports state. Experience teaches us that toe injuries for backs turn out to be exponentially worse than the initial reports indicate.

      Adrian Peterson does not play second fiddle to anyone, even Chris Johnson.

      Mark Sanchez(notes) has arrived. The playoffs were not a fluke (sixth best ever after the first three road playoff games). As a result, Dustin Keller(notes), Braylon Edwards(notes) and, shortly, Santonio Holmes(notes), are all playable. So is LaDainian Tomlinson(notes), the goal-line back and – officially – co-starter (whoever is better after 21 snaps each gets

      Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Woe is the toe
    • Scouting Notebook: Vick clicks

      The Week 2 Scouting Notebook has some apologies and regrets – as is normal this time of year – but we also hold firm on some summer calls that were well outside the mainstream.

      While I can claim some sort of victory in forecasting that teams will contain Michael Vick's(notes) running with a week to prepare, the broader point was that Vick couldn't throw. And the Vick we last saw could not. But you can't deny his impressive passing since replacing Kevin Kolb(notes). And his chemistry with DeSean Jackson(notes) has been great. Maybe he needed to be in a system like Andy Reid's. I know the company line is that Kolb is still the QB. But that can't happen. If it does, Reid loses this team and probably his job.

      The "Brandon Jackson(notes): Feature Back" story seams headed for a rewrite. Not only was his production sub-pedestrian (even accepting the gift TD plunge), he received only 11 of 20 carries (former fullback now one-back John Kuhn(notes) got the others) before the garbage time began.

      Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Vick clicks

    Pagination

    (221 Stories)