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    Michael Salfino

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    Michael Salfino provides quantitative player and team analysis for the Wall Street Journal and Yahoo! Sports.

    • Scouting Notebook: Pop guns

      Two big-name passers helming suddenly punch-and-judy passing attacks highlight our Week 9 Scouting Notebook.

      We start in Carolina, where Drew Brees(notes) was decidedly pop-gun with his wide receivers averaging less than 10 yards per catch. Tom Brady(notes) similarly had his wideouts gain just 69 yards on seven catches. Unlike the again victorious Brees, Brady is coming off a disheartening loss in Cleveland.

      The buy for the Saints now is Julius Jones(notes), who has ability. Pierre Thomas(notes) doesn't seem to have a future in New Orleans with the team questioning his toughness coming off ankle injury after passing on giving him long-term security this summer.

      Before we get excited about the Bucs showing fight against the Falcons and thus defying the stat people (like me) who think they stink, let's note that the stats also say the Falcons are about average and thus overachieving, too.

      Tony Sparano spent the week trying to figure out ways to get Brandon Marshall(notes) the ball more

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    • Scouting Notebook: Buc up

      Fantasy points were at a premium in Week 8, especially for those having players toiling in the wind-swept New Meadowlands Stadium.

      LeGarrette Blount(notes) is the story in the Bucs-Cardinals game. Raheem Morris still refuses to anoint him the starter. But that's a meaningless distinction. Blount was undrafted due to character issues (punching an opponent after a game last year). But he would have been drafted by a team looking to use his inside running skills out of one-back formations. I'm mystified by the Bucs success, which is not supported by any statistics. Pick Blount up this week on waivers if you can. Trade value for him right now is 20-to-30th overall back and at that higher end, I'd definitely be a seller.

      Mike Tolbert(notes) looks set to steal Ryan Mathews'(notes) real carries in addition to goal-line ones after outplaying him once Mathews left with a cut face. Who would have thought that BenJarvis Green-Ellis would be a better fantasy option right now than a healthy

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    • Scouting Notebook: Paying the Bills

      Ryan Fitzpatrick(notes) entered the week No. 1 in TD percentage (of total passes). How can the leader there not be playable at QB? Then he puts up four more scores – three to Lee Evans(notes) – against the Ravens (a declining defense, but still). Fitzpatrick is in the perfect high volume situation and is showing quality along with the quantity. If you missed out on Kyle Orton(notes), here he is again, new and improved.

      Darren McFadden's(notes) day has to be discounted a little because the Broncos front seven is made of paper mâché. But he's playing like a No. 1 pick – 150 yards per game and six TDs in five games. If you have him, you almost have to be in first place.

      Matt Ryan(notes) and Roddy White(notes) are making great music together but Tony Gonzalez(notes) is basically playing cowbell now in the Falcons' band, averaging just four catches per game of the mostly harmless variety.

      DeAngelo Williams(notes), Fred Taylor(notes) and Tiki Barber are only backs to average 4.5 yards or

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    • Scouting Notebook: Negative Chargers

      The NFL really seemed like a battlefield on Sunday and among the casualties are two big names whose immediate absence will certainly change the fantasy landscape next week and beyond. How long we won't know until mid-week. But it's here where we kick off our Week 6 Scouting Notebook.

      Antonio Gates(notes) and DeSean Jackson(notes) were the hottest players around. Gates is in a boot now with ankle and foot injuries. Jackson was KO'ed by a vicious helmet-to-helmet hit. Perhaps the penalty should be 15 yards and you are out as long as your victim is out.

      I give up on the Chargers. What happened to all that talk about making Ryan Mathews(notes) a featured back and wanting to run the ball? Without Gates, what better time to unleash your rookie beast. And why is Mike Tolbert(notes) the goal-line back? Mathews isn't big enough at 6-foot-0, 218 pounds?

      The Eagles fared much better without Jackson, whose concussion was described as "severe." Jeremy Maclin(notes) is a real playmaker. But for

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    • Scouting Notebook: Down in Dallas

      Let's do away with the preamble and get right down to business in dissecting the major doings in Week 5.

      Something is missing with Tony Romo(notes). He locked in on his receiver his last three passes and had two tipped and one intercepted. On 3rd-and-9, he had Felix Jones(notes) running out all alone for an easy first down as an outlet receiver with no defender within 10 yards of him. With Jones, that could be a TD. On fourth down, Jones came clean off a chip block again with no defender within 10 yards. Maybe the Titans close before the stripe. But why run that little jerk route with Jason Witten(notes) two plays in a row and throw it twice with a defender draped over him both times?

      Cowboy haters never get tired of seeing Romo sulk his way through those post-game press conferences. Tony, that newsboy cap you wear does not exude the tough-guy strength your leaderless team needs.

      The end zone celebration rule is stupid. We find out that handing the ball to a lineman triggers the flag

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    • Scouting Notebook: Woe is the toe

      You can't wait for the season to come to you, you have to go out and grab it – even with only three games worth of data. Let's review where we've seen enough and where caution is more in order – though caution is not our style here in the Scouting Notebook.

      Jahvid Best's(notes) toe injury is a real concern considering his running style and home surface. Do not underestimate the impact this could have no matter what initial reports state. Experience teaches us that toe injuries for backs turn out to be exponentially worse than the initial reports indicate.

      Adrian Peterson does not play second fiddle to anyone, even Chris Johnson.

      Mark Sanchez(notes) has arrived. The playoffs were not a fluke (sixth best ever after the first three road playoff games). As a result, Dustin Keller(notes), Braylon Edwards(notes) and, shortly, Santonio Holmes(notes), are all playable. So is LaDainian Tomlinson(notes), the goal-line back and – officially – co-starter (whoever is better after 21 snaps each gets

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    • Scouting Notebook: Vick clicks

      The Week 2 Scouting Notebook has some apologies and regrets – as is normal this time of year – but we also hold firm on some summer calls that were well outside the mainstream.

      While I can claim some sort of victory in forecasting that teams will contain Michael Vick's(notes) running with a week to prepare, the broader point was that Vick couldn't throw. And the Vick we last saw could not. But you can't deny his impressive passing since replacing Kevin Kolb(notes). And his chemistry with DeSean Jackson(notes) has been great. Maybe he needed to be in a system like Andy Reid's. I know the company line is that Kolb is still the QB. But that can't happen. If it does, Reid loses this team and probably his job.

      The "Brandon Jackson(notes): Feature Back" story seams headed for a rewrite. Not only was his production sub-pedestrian (even accepting the gift TD plunge), he received only 11 of 20 carries (former fullback now one-back John Kuhn(notes) got the others) before the garbage time began.

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    • Scouting Notebook: Eagles have landed

      All Week 1 contests are eventful because we finally get to open our presents. The trick at this stage of the season is to react without overreacting. Let's see if we can toe that line.

      The Eagles-Packers game should have been played at Gettysburg for all the on-field carnage. Andy Reid probably has an out by giving Kevin Kolb(notes) a week to heal from his concussion. But he'd lose the team if Kolb was healthy and started the next game. Michael Vick(notes) at quarterback is Andy Reid's worst nightmare. He wants him as a gadget player, not a starter because Vick can't throw. Yes, if he rushes at a 200-yard pace like he did on Sunday, all will be well. But let's see Vick gash a defense that's prepared all week for his running.

      It should go without saying that Vick at QB is a nightmare for anyone with DeSean Jackson(notes) shares. But I'll note it anyway for anyone who's forgotten that Vick has never made any wide receiver better (or even good).

      Of equal importance is Ryan Grant's(notes)

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    • Scouting Notebook: The Revis Effect

      The last week of preseason games warrants little analysis. Beginning next week, here now exclusively at Yahoo!, I'll man the leadoff spot every Sunday night when I condense each week's NFL action via this Scouting Notebook. Here's the last batch of summer notes.

      Darrelle Revis's(notes) signing means that owners of Randy Moss(notes) and Brandon Marshall(notes) should consider them to have three byes – the actual one plus the two games against Revis. It's not quite as bad for Tom Brady(notes) owners, but it's going to be a lot tougher to make a living against the rest of the Jets secondary with Antonio Cromartie(notes) and rookie Kyle Wilson(notes) capable of taking out just about every No. 2 and No. 3 WR man-to-man, too.

      With Julian Edelman(notes) out a couple of weeks and Revis in lockdown mode on Moss in Week 2, keep an early eye on Patriots speedster Brandon Tate(notes), now quite draftable in deep formats at least as a late-round pocket pick.

      Vincent Jackson's(notes) situation is a

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    • Scouting Notebook: Run-and-Shoot Ravens?

      So much to cover off the only important preseason week. Next week is strictly for show even by August standards.

      The run-and-shoot Ravens? Baltimore threw on 19 of its first 21 plays, if you count Flacco runs. The third preseason game is typically when you unveil your base offense. The odds of the Ravens being a 60 percent pass team (league average is 55 percent) jumped from zero to about 30 percent, so draft accordingly. Note that this kind of split would render Willis McGahee(notes) useless.

      Jeremiah Johnson(notes) seems like the hedge play against Arian Foster(notes), who is shooting up draft boards but who is still two opening day fumbles away from losing his job. Steve Slaton(notes) seems cemented as the third-down back and thus is of very marginal value.

      I would not draft Knowshon Moreno(notes) in the first four rounds considering the uncertain state of his hamstring (hasn't even practiced in a month). Remember, Moreno wasn't good even when healthy last year and was badly

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