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    Michael Salfino

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    Michael Salfino provides quantitative player and team analysis for the Wall Street Journal and Yahoo! Sports.

    • Scouting Notebook: Ray of hope

      We start our Week 15 Scouting Notebook in New Jersey where we saw a fantastic finish that NFL fans will be talking about in 50 years.

      Andy Reid and Tom Coughlin took turns trying to coach their way to defeat, but Coughlin won. Being caught with your pants down on an onside kick down 14 with seven minutes left is a joke. But worse was yelling at your 22-year-old rookie punter in the middle of the field and seeming to entirely blame him for the loss when he kicked to DeSean Jackson(notes) who first fumbled and then returned it for a TD with no time on the clock. Why humiliate a kid like that when you could just as easily scream at your reflection in the mirror? We all saw the whole team take turns flushing that win down the toilet.

      Michael Vick(notes) is incredible. I'd say he's revolutionizing the position but no one else can do what he can now, in the past and maybe into the forever future, either.

      Maybe Tim Tebow(notes) can be a super-sized Vick. But he runs more like a fullback than

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    • Fantasy Team Power Rankings: Week 15

      Environment is the major key to fantasy football production. These rankings, updated weekly throughout the season, assess the foundation upon which fantasy football statistics rise (or fall). NFL offenses are ranked 1-through-32 based solely on 2010 performance in the following categories: red zone trips per game, third down conversion percentage, yards per rush attempt, yards per pass attempt, sack percentage allowed, rushing TDs per game and passing TDs per game. Also use these rankings to target weak offenses when selecting a fantasy defense for the coming week.

      Fantasy Team Offense Power Rankings
      Rank Team RZ/Game 3rd % YPC YPA Sack % TD/Run TD/Pass Total
      1 New England (11-2) 1 3 15 2 7 1 1 30
      2 NY Giants (9-4) 4 23 2 9 2 1 5 46
      3 Philadelphia (9-4) 4 9 1 3 24 1 7 49
      4 New Orleans (10-3) 2 1 17 8 3 21 2 54
      5 Houston (5-8) 9 6 3 7 14 1 17 57
      6 San Diego (7-6) 3 5 19 1 21 6 3 58
      7 Indianapolis (7-6) 8 4 32 10 1 11 3 69
      8 Atlanta (11-2) 6 2 22 25 4 6 10 75
      9 Dallas (4-9) 19 10 21 6 6
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    • Scouting Notebook: Sent Packing

      Not even a blizzard can stop Tom Brady(notes) and the Patriots now, as they defied the snow and the reported 30-mph winds to register 300-plus passing yards and 36 points against the No. 1 pass defense in football.

      Many Brady owners were frantically looking for backup options on the waiver wire as they resolved it was best to forgo their star in these conditions against that defense. But you could tell on the first drive that the wintry conditions weren't going to be a factor, as the winds seemed far less disruptive than advertised in the pre-game build up.

      Here's what happened around the rest of the league on Sunday as chronicled in my Scouting Notebook.

      Aaron Rodgers'(notes) injury came on a scramble that his owners love but that greatly increases injury risk. The blow that ended his day didn't cause the injury directly but instead provided the force that bounced Rodgers' head off the Ford Field turf. Rodgers came up looking like Apollo Creed after a standing eight count and soon

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    • Fantasy Team Power Rankings: Week 14

      Environment is the major key to fantasy football production. These rankings, updated weekly throughout the season, assess the foundation upon which fantasy football statistics rise (or fall). NFL offenses are ranked 1-through-32 based solely on 2010 performance in the following categories: red zone trips per game, third down conversion percentage, yards per rush attempt, yards per pass attempt, sack percentage allowed, rushing TDs per game and passing TDs per game. Also use these rankings to target weak offenses when selecting a fantasy defense for the coming week.

      Fantasy Team Offense Power Rankings
      Rank Team RZ/Game 3rd % YPC YPA Sack % TD/Run TD/Pass Total
      1 New England (10-2) 1 4 13 3 19 2 1 43
      2 Philadelphia (8-4) 5 11 1 5 24 2 9 57
      3 Houston (5-7) 11 5 3 8 13 1 17 58
      4 NY Giants (8-4) 3 21 5 7 21 4 5 66
      5 New Orleans (9-3) 1 2 15 9 20 18 2 67
      6 Atlanta (10-2) 6 1 19 23 2 9 9 69
      7 Kansas City (8-4) 8 17 2 13 16 9 5 70
      8 Green Bay (8-4) 13 6 20 2 12 15 5 73
      8 San Diego (6-6) 3 10
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    • Scouting Notebook: Fantastic flops

      Shockingly bad performances by two great quarterbacks highlight this week's Scouting Notebook.

      Peyton Manning's(notes) stat-line on Sunday fit perfectly with the recent, disturbing pattern. His four picks give him 11 in the last three games – all Colts losses.

      It was a little embarrassing to hear Manning getting the Brett Favre(notes) treatment on the telecast – nothing is his fault. The poor decisions/poor throws all absolved by his "poor" supporting cast. But he gets all the glory when those same teammates come up big or when he has a totally unforced error. Praising Manning now when he's costing his team games actually dishonors his prior greatness. The interesting question now is whether this is the beginning of the end of Manning, who is 35 in March. I look at the completion percentage (71 percent during this stretch) and say, "No way." But his lack of judgement of late is mystifying. He's had to carry his team before and hasn't cracked like this.

      So much for the MVP candidacy of

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    • Fantasy Team Power Rankings: Week 13

      Environment is the major key to fantasy football production. These rankings, updated weekly throughout the season, assess the foundation upon which fantasy football statistics rise (or fall). NFL offenses are ranked 1-through-32 based solely on 2010 performance in the following categories: red zone trips per game, third down conversion percentage, yards per rush attempt, yards per pass attempt, sack percentage allowed, rushing TDs per game and passing TDs per game. Also use these rankings to target weak offenses when selecting a fantasy defense for the coming week.

      Fantasy Team Offense Power Rankings
      Rank Team RZ/Game 3rd % YPC YPA Sack % TD/Run TD/Pass Total
      1 New England (9-2) 2 3 12 7 5 2 1 32
      2 NY Giants (7-4) 4 20 5 6 2 6 1 44
      3 San Diego (6-5) 2 7 19 1 20 5 1 55
      4 Kansas City (7-4) 5 19 2 12 7 6 5 56
      5 New Orleans (8-3) 1 1 22 10 3 23 1 61
      6 Philadelphia (7-4) 7 11 1 8 26 2 12 67
      7 Houston (5-6) 11 9 3 9 19 1 21 73
      8 Atlanta (9-2) 7 2 17 23 6 11 12 78
      9 Indianapolis (6-5) 10 4 30
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    • Scouting Notebook: Unsung QBs step up

      The Thursday games have been picked over more by now than the Thanksgiving turkey. So in this Scouting Notebook, let’s stick to Sunday – very low scoring until three unsung QBs on draft day rallied late.

      Michael Vick(notes) looked like more pre- than post-prison version until the fourth quarter, which he dominated in quasi-garbage time to finish with another 300-plus-yard passing game (two scores). He also threw his first pick of the year. He’s proving he can be an asset even when facing the stiffest competition.

      Kyle Orton(notes) was another losing QB who paid big fantasy dividends while playing catch-up most of the day. Eddie Royal(notes) emerged from a season-long hibernation on basically one drive, but I would not project based on that. The Denver Broncos situation is tricky though because Tim Tebow(notes) was a signature pick of Josh McDaniels. With the losses and cheating scandal putting his job in jeopardy, he may go to him to try to catch fire and create some sentiment for his

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    • Scouting Notebook: End of an era?

      We bid farewell this week to one of the all-time fantasy football greats while wishing everyone a Happy Thanksgiving, one hopefully accompanied by a double-serving of yards and touchdowns in Thursday's action.

      The circus eventually must leave town and it hung around for Brett Favre(notes) longer than it has for just about anyone ever. But it's packed up now for good and that can't escape his notice. He'll retire on Tuesday probably. And I'll spot in Tarvaris Jackson(notes) once or twice in the many deep leagues where I skim the waiver wire each week for QB help (too many starters and not enough reserve spots for anyone to carry two).

      Steven Jackson owners should be ticked. The Rams were seventh in the league with 3.7 red zone possessions per game heading into the Falcons game, when they added two more. Yet Jackson has three runs all year from inside the five. That's tied for 41st in football. Pierre Thomas(notes) has more! Sunday, game on the line, 2nd-and-goal from the 2-yard line and

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    • Scouting Notebook: QBs from the fringe

      An outbreak of waiver-wire quarterbacks suddenly turning into fantasy killers highlights our Week 10 Scouting Notebook.

      Jon Kitna(notes) just demolished the Giants – 327 yards on 13 completions. That's old-school AFL. And he lost another long one when Dez Bryant(notes) bobbled a catch while his shoulder skidded out of bounds. Kitna has been pretty good if you back out his picks that were deflected by his own receivers (at least three by my count). All the major Cowboys are back on the board.

      Matt Cassel(notes) was loving garbage time, typically not the fantasy factor we fear. We remember all the times we're beat by meaningless touchdowns but never bother to register the many more times we are not. In truth, prevent defenses generally work and most teams give up when it's hopeless. But Todd Haley's approach to calling plays was indistinguishable from what a Cassel or Dwayne Bowe(notes) owner would have done if given a headset.

      Man, Troy Smith(notes) is good. That Rams defense is not a

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    • Fantasy Team Power Rankings

      Environment is the major key to fantasy football production. These rankings, updated weekly throughout the season, assess the foundation upon which fantasy football statistics rise (or fall). NFL offenses are ranked 1-through-32 based solely on 2010 performance in the following categories: red zone trips per game, third down conversion percentage, yards per rush attempt, yards per pass attempt, sack percentage allowed, rushing TDs per game and passing TDs per game. Also use these rankings to target weak offenses when selecting a fantasy defense for the coming week.

      Fantasy Team Offense Power Rankings
      Rank Team RZ/Game 3rd% YPC YPA Sack% TD/Run TD/Pass Total
      1 NY Giants (6-2) 3 21 6 4 6 2 1 43
      2 San Diego (4-5) 2 3 18 1 19 5 2 50
      3 New England (6-2) 3 5 15 14 10 5 8 60
      4 Indianapolis (5-3) 8 6 25 10 1 10 3 63
      5 Atlanta (6-2) 6 2 13 20 7 10 13 71
      6 New Orleans (6-3) 1 1 23 13 2 30 3 73
      7 Houston (4-4) 13 10 1 7 24 1 20 76
      8 Philadelphia (5-3) 13 7 2 11 28 5 13 79
      9
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