Let's try to isolate bad luck by looking at the pitchers who should have significantly better ERAs looking only at their homers allowed, unintentional walks and hit batters and strikeouts.
We've detailed before how Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) stats are not always merely a product of luck. For example, some pitchers consistently generate a high number of pop ups and thus have better than expected success in having balls in play turn into outs. And fly ball pitchers generally achieve this same result.
However, given the totality of historical evidence with this statistic, it's clear that luck – good or bad – can easily swing an ERA a run or more in either direction. That's good for savvy players because it disguises value. So let's look now at the pitchers who are the best, meaning cheapest, buys.
All of the following have actual ERAs that are at least 0.64 worse than their FIP ERA, some are as many as three runs per game unlucky. To make this list, you needed to have a FIP ERARead More »from Pitching by the Numbers: FIP check