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    Michael Salfino

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    Michael Salfino provides quantitative player and team analysis for the Wall Street Journal and Yahoo! Sports.

    • Pitching by the Numbers: FIP check

      Let's try to isolate bad luck by looking at the pitchers who should have significantly better ERAs looking only at their homers allowed, unintentional walks and hit batters and strikeouts.

      We've detailed before how Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) stats are not always merely a product of luck. For example, some pitchers consistently generate a high number of pop ups and thus have better than expected success in having balls in play turn into outs. And fly ball pitchers generally achieve this same result.

      However, given the totality of historical evidence with this statistic, it's clear that luck – good or bad – can easily swing an ERA a run or more in either direction. That's good for savvy players because it disguises value. So let's look now at the pitchers who are the best, meaning cheapest, buys.

      All of the following have actual ERAs that are at least 0.64 worse than their FIP ERA, some are as many as three runs per game unlucky. To make this list, you needed to have a FIP ERA

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    • Pitching by the Numbers: K's with control

      You can find more from Michael Salfino at SNYWhyGuys.com

      This week we'll take a look at one the most important April pitching stat – K/BB ratio. We pounce on it early because it's proven to be less prone to dramatic volatility as the data gets more reliable.

      I do appreciate the kind words most of you have for this feature. You get what we're trying to do and for that I'm grateful. But I'd be remiss if I did not address those intermittent viewer missives focused generally on two main points. I understand that K/BB ratio, in the case of this week's piece, is not a category in your leagues. But this is not a valid criticism for the simple reason that K/BB ratio greatly impacts the categories that are scored. Remedial players worry about the fantasy categories while the savvy players look deeper to the foundational stats. The other criticism is much more valid: it is early. These sample sizes are small. However, small is all we have now and you can't sit April and even May out while you

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    • Pitching by the Numbers: Outside the zone

      You can find more from Michael Salfino at SNYWhyGuys.com

      One of the benchmarks of good pitching is getting hitters to go fishing by swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. This week in Pitching by the Numbers, let's look at the leaders in that department since 2010, and also at the 2011 leaders who did not make that broader and much more statistically significant list.

      The major league median for swinging at bad balls is about 29 percent. But it's not enough to just get guys to fish, you need them to come away empty handed, too. Median contact rate on swinging at pitches out of the strike zone is about 66.7 percent. So pitchers on our list had to beat that. And we want these players to be available, so the cutoff there was 81 percent Yahoo! ownership. At that level, you aren't very likely to be able to just add a guy but there's a good chance he can be acquired in a trade for a reasonable price.

      Rank is where the pitchers ranked sorting just by how frequently they were able to get

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    • Pitching by the Numbers: The movers

      You can find more from Michael Salfino at SNYWhyGuys.com

      Last week when we wrote in this space about velocity measured strictly by miles per hour, some readers wisely noted in the comments the importance of movement. Of course, there are many pitchers who miss bats without tilting the radar gun. Let's give them special mention now and make some related recommendations.

      Since the sample size for 2011 is still so small, we're going to focus still on 2010 stats. To make our list of pitchers who generate elite movement without great speed, two things were required. They needed to be top 20 in missed swing percentage according to the leader boards on Fangraphs. And they needed an average fastball velocity in 2010 below what is commonly considered to be major league average – 92 mph. We only looked at starting pitchers.

      Here are the results:

      Player '10 FB Velocity '10 Missed Swings '10 Rank '11 Swings Missed
      Jered Weaver(notes) 89.9 11.2% 4th 9.3%
      Tim Lincecum(notes) 91.3 11.0% 6th 10.5%
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    • Pitching by the Numbers: Seeking heat

      You can find more from Michael Salfino at SNYWhyGuys.com

      I've been saying for years that velocity is a stat too overlooked by the sabermetrically inclined. Peripherals do have a tendency to follow it assuming the command is at a major league level. There are exceptions, of course, but it's generally true. So in this Pitching by the Numbers, let's focus on the radar-gun readings.

      There are caveats this early beyond mere sample size. Cold air is more densely packed with molecules than hot air and we know that it decreases the distance of fly balls about one percent for every 10-degree drop in temperature. We should expect a similar effect on pitches thrown in the cold. So you may be able to discount declines of 1-to-2 mph if the pitcher in question has pitched in the cold.

      Joe Nathan's(notes) dip is very concerning and not explained by anything other than a recovery from Tommy John surgery that's clearly not complete. Pre-surgery, he averaged 93.6 mph on his fastball and that was down

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    • Pitching by the Numbers: Pop-up artists

      You can find more from Michael Salfino at SNYWhyGuys.com

      Pop-ups get hitters muttering to themselves. But instead of taking all the blame for a bad swing, perhaps they should tip their cap to the man on the mound. Some major league hurlers appear to have a consistent and thus projectable ability to induce infield fly balls at rates well above the major league average.

      These same pitchers tend to be mocked for having an unsustainable batting average allowed on balls in play (BABIP). But often this supposed luck in generating a higher percentage of outs on balls in play is largely explained by these pop-up rates.

      Last week for the Wall Street Journal, I wrote about the leading active reliever and starter (minimum 400 innings) in this category. I also listed the others in an accompanying chart. Here are the BABIP of the pitchers in the top 10, top to bottom (remember, the average/expected BABIP is about .300): .261, .251, .279, .274, .251, .281, .286, .271, .277, .290, .280.

      I ask you,

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    • Scouting Notebook: Who's No. 1 in '11?

      Let's put a holiday bow on the 2010 fantasy football season as we kick off 2011 with our last Scouting Notebook … until next summer.

      Is Michael Vick(notes) a consideration at No. 1 overall? Never in a million years for me. He needs to run and there's the attendant injury risk. I'd draft Aaron Rodgers(notes) over Vick if you forced me to take one in the first three rounds and he'll be available at least a round after Vick. Other QBs I'd take over Vick: Drew Brees(notes), Philip Rivers(notes), Tom Brady(notes), Peyton Manning(notes).

      Is Arian Foster(notes) the top pick next year now that Gary Kubiak is back? Can't argue too hard, but I'd take Adrian Peterson because we know what Peterson's baseline is and do not know that with Foster, who will regress, obviously, but how far?

      Don't talk to me about the Madden curse. It's all about regression to the mean, like the Sports Illustrated cover jinx. There's no black magic involved. You had a career year to get on the cover and there's only one

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    • Fantasy Team Power Rankings: Week 17

      Environment is the major key to fantasy football production. These rankings, updated weekly throughout the season, assess the foundation upon which fantasy football statistics rise (or fall). NFL offenses are ranked 1-through-32 based solely on 2010 performance in the following categories: red zone trips per game, third down conversion percentage, yards per rush attempt, yards per pass attempt, sack percentage allowed, rushing TDs per game and passing TDs per game. Also use these rankings to target weak offenses when selecting a fantasy defense for the coming week.

      Fantasy Team Offense Power Rankings
      Rank Team RZ/Game 3rd % YPC YPA Sack % TD/Run TD/Pass Total
      1 New England (13-2) 1 3 12 3 7 1 1 28
      2 NY Giants (9-6) 8 21 4 7 2 5 4 51
      3 Philadelphia (10-5) 4 11 1 5 26 1 8 56
      4 San Diego (8-7) 3 4 23 1 17 7 4 59
      5 Indianapolis (9-6) 4 5 28 12 1 8 3 61
      6 New Orleans (11-4) 2 1 21 11 3 23 2 63
      7 Houston (5-10) 11 12 6 9 13 3 17 71
      8 Atlanta (12-3) 7 2 24 27 4 8 10 82
      8 Dallas (5-10) 16 9
      Read More »from Fantasy Team Power Rankings: Week 17
    • Scouting Notebook: Battering Ram

      Happy holidays and a special happy New Year as we provide an extra helping of insights and analysis in this penultimate Scouting Notebook.

      I'll bet now that Steven Jackson is shot at 1,867 career carries. He looks it. And if you think, "Hey, he still is young and has plenty of tread left on the tires," I ask you, "How many backs in the history of the sport have more carries?" I'll give you a minute to guess. Give up? The answer: 39. Lots of players in Jackson's class of runner have been done before 2,000 carries.

      Felix Jones(notes) is a most interesting call for next year. He's 5.2 yards per rush for his career but just 4.1 this year (when he's had the most carries). However, note his YPR this year is better than Marion Barber(notes) (3.4) and Tashard Choice(notes) (3.8). He's been a dynamite receiver – 9.7 yards per catch for a back (47 receptions) is a huge number. He hasn't found the end zone often, but then again neither has Ray Rice(notes). Jones could be the poor-man's Rice about

      Read More »from Scouting Notebook: Battering Ram
    • Fantasy Team Power Rankings: Week 16

      Environment is the major key to fantasy football production. These rankings, updated weekly throughout the season, assess the foundation upon which fantasy football statistics rise (or fall). NFL offenses are ranked 1-through-32 based solely on 2010 performance in the following categories: red zone trips per game, third down conversion percentage, yards per rush attempt, yards per pass attempt, sack percentage allowed, rushing TDs per game and passing TDs per game. Also use these rankings to target weak offenses when selecting a fantasy defense for the coming week.

      Fantasy Team Offense Power Rankings
      Rank Team RZ/Game 3rd % YPC YPA Sack % TD/Run TD/Pass Total
      1 New England (12-2) 1 3 14 2 7 1 1 29
      2 NY Giants (9-5) 5 19 4 7 2 4 4 45
      3 Philadelphia (10-4) 3 12 1 3 24 1 6 50
      4 San Diego (8-6) 3 5 23 1 18 6 3 59
      5 New Orleans (10-4) 1 1 21 9 3 24 1 60
      6 Houston (5-9) 11 8 5 10 15 4 15 68
      7 Indianapolis (8-6) 7 4 32 12 1 11 4 71
      8 Atlanta (12-2) 6 2 24 25 4 8 9 78
      9 Dallas (5-9) 13 11 20
      Read More »from Fantasy Team Power Rankings: Week 16

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