Dalton Del Don
Dalton Del Don at Roto Arcade 1 day ago
Nolan Arenado has been the No. 1 overall fantasy player over the past month, and it’s not even close. He’s scored in 12 consecutive games, totaling 17 runs, eight homers and 17 RBI over those dozen contests. Arenado is on pace to finish with 53 homers, 105 runs scored and 147 RBI while batting .293. The crazy thing about his season is that the third baseman is hitting better on the road (1.028 OPS) than at Coors Field (.890) as well as against right handers (.989) opposed to southpaws (.833). The fact Arenado doesn’t walk (4.4 BB%) or strike out (13.8%) much might actually help his counting stats and therefore his fantasy value. It’s too bad he doesn’t steal bases (although he is terrific defensively), but his .266 BABIP sure looks unlucky, especially considering Coors Field has increased batting average by 17 percent over the past three seasons, which is 11% more than the next best park. Arenado is clearly a star and might very well only get better moving forward. He’s still just 24 years old. Only health can prevent Arenado from being a first round fantasy pick next year.
Dalton Del Don at Roto Arcade 2 days ago
Madison Bumgarner, SP, vs. Col (Kendrick), $11,100 at FanDuel: He has just one win in more than a month, although he’s sported a 0.93 WHIP with a 47:6 K:BB ratio over 37.2 innings over that span, which suggests there may have been some bad luck in the win department to say the least. The Giants are by far the most favored team Sunday (-230), and Colorado has the fourth-worst OPS against LHP (.662) among all teams this season.
Jose Abreu, 1B, at Det (Price), $3600: He was drafted as a top-10 fantasy player entering the year and while a disappointment so far, he hasn’t been quite the bust this price suggests. Abreu has hit .328/.407/.598 versus lefties during his MLB career, and he’s not priced as a top-10 first baseman here.
David DeJesus, OF, vs. Bos (Masterson), $2200: He’s cheap and hitting cleanup. Meanwhile, Justin Masterson has allowed a .300 BAA and a 1.73 WHIP when facing LHB this year.
Dalton Del Don at Roto Arcade 3 days ago
Clayton Kershaw, SP, at Mia (Koehler), $12300 at FanDuel: This is obviously going chalk, but the prices lately with hitters have made paying up for the No. 1 SP of the day more palatable. The Marlins have scored the seventh-fewest runs in MLB this year (although to be fair they’ve been better against LHP), and the Dodgers are easily the most favored team Saturday (-200). Kershaw is sitting with just a 5-5 record on the year and a disappointing (for him) 3.33 ERA, but I’d still bet on him being the best pitcher from here on out. He’s struck out 41 batters over his last four starts, spanning 27.2 innings.
Victor Martinez, C, vs. CHW (Danks), $3400: He owns a .452/.514/.645 line against southpaws and hits in the middle of Detroit’s lineup as the DH. His struggles against RHP (.495 OPS) thanks to an injury really brings his price down here.
Dalton Del Don at Roto Arcade 5 days ago
Charlie Blackmon, OF, vs. Ari (De La Rosa), $4600 at FanDuel: During his current seven-game home stand, he’s batting .429 with a homer, four steals and nine RBI. Blackmon owns a .915 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season (with a combined 25 homers/steals) over 195 at bats and is batting leadoff in the best hitter’s park in all of baseball. Meanwhile, Rubby De La Rosa has allowed a .316 BAA and a 1.70 WHIP against lefties, including a whopping 10 homers over 40.0 innings.
David Ortiz, 1B, vs. Bal (Gonzalez), $2900: He continues to be cheap despite having a .930 OPS against right-handers. Ortiz has also homered in two of the past three games and remains Boston’s cleanup hitter.
Manny Machado, 3B, at Bos (Rodriguez), $4400: He’s batting .333/.369/.533 against southpaws, will be playing in one of the best hitter’s parks in all of baseball and has been the No. 6 ranked fantasy player over the past month.
Dalton Del Don at Roto Arcade 6 days ago
Gerrit Cole, SP, vs. Cin (Leake), $11,100 at FanDuel: I’m as big a fan of Chris Sale as anyone, but he’s more expensive, and the Pirates are bigger favorites Wednesday (an MLB-high -190). Of course, Cole isn’t exactly cheap, but as usual, I recommend spending big on SP, and he’s emerged as a true ace this season, combining a 20.7 K-BB% with a 1.98 GB/FB ratio and a 10.0 SwStr%. The Reds also rank in the bottom-five in baseball in runs scored both on the road and against RHP. Cole has a 1.88 ERA and 1.02 WHIP with a 42:6 K:BB ratio over 38.1 innings at home this season.
Kevin Kiermaier, OF, vs. Tor (Estrada), $2800: He’s a leadoff hitter who’s 8-for-17 (.471) with two steals over his past four games and is facing a pitcher who’s typically been very homer-prone during his career.
Dalton Del Don at Roto Arcade 8 days ago
Chris Sale recently became the third player ever to record 12 strikeouts in five straight games and has recorded double-digit Ks in six straight starts, which has occurred in just 10 other instances in MLB history. You obviously don’t need me to tell you Sale is good at baseball, but his fantasy owners have been unlucky he’s gotten just six wins while posting a 2.74 ERA and 0.94 WHIP this season. Sale’s 34.3 K% leads MLB, as does his 28.5 K-BB% and 16.0 SwStr%. Over the past month, he’s struck out 13 of 24 LHB he’s faced, which is an MLB-high 54.2%. The league average is 18.9% (h/t Inside Edge). If a draft were held today, I’d easily make him a top-10 overall pick. There’s a strong argument he’s the best pitcher in baseball. Just imagine if he pitched in the National League and not in a home park that’s increased run scoring more than any in MLB over the past three years other than Coors field. Since May 12, Sale has easily been the No. 1 overall fantasy player, and that’s with him not recording a win in four starts in which he combined for a 1.76 ERA.
Dalton Del Don at Roto Arcade 12 days ago
Danny Salazar, SP, vs. CHC (Hammel), $9100 at FanDuel: He’s facing a good team and a strong starter, but Salazar is the fifth-most expensive SP for Thursday despite the Indians currently being the most favored (-175) team of the day. He owns an impressive 24.5 K-BB% and 13.6 SwStr%, both of which rank in the top-eight among all starters in baseball. Salazar also sports a 34:4 K:BB ratio with a 0.90 WHIP over 25.2 innings at home this season.
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, vs. Tex (Lewis), $3200: He’s been in a slump, but Gonzalez is still on pace to finish with a .300-91-27-106 line yet is moderately priced among first basemen while facing a RHP on Thursday. He’s also 7-for-10 with two homers during his career against Colby Lewis.
Preston Tucker, OF, at Col (Hale), $3500: He’s been batting cleanup and is facing a RHP in Coors Field on Thursday, so use him (and also Jason Castro if he gets the start at catcher).
Dalton Del Don at Roto Arcade 13 days ago
Michael Pineda, SP, vs. Mia (Urena), $9900 at FanDuel: He’s not one of the top-five most expensive starters yet the Yankees are the second-most favored team (-200) Wednesday. Pineda owns a 22.0 K-BB% to go along with a 1.83 GB/FB ratio and an 11.3 SwStr%, which is a strong combination. The Marlins’ OPS (.647) against RHP ranks No. 22 in MLB as well.
Chris Colabello, OF, vs. NYM (Niese), $2900: He owns a .400/.438/.767 line against southpaws as well as a 1.033 OPS at home this season. He’s also been batting fifth lately for a Toronto team that’s lapping the field in runs scored in baseball (65 more than the next best).
Ryan Raburn, OF, vs. CHC (Wada), $2200: He’ll likely lose an AB versus a relief pitcher (or as a defensive replacement) late in the game, but someone batting in the middle of the lineup with a .948 OPS against lefties priced as the cheapest hitter in the game seems like a no brainer to use.
Dalton Del Don at Roto Arcade 14 days ago
Michael Wacha, SP, vs. Min (Gibson), $8700 at FanDuel: I fully questioned Wacha’s ability to keep pitching so well with such a shaky K rate earlier this season, but he’s posted a 15:1 K:BB ratio over his last two starts over 13.2 innings, which both came on the road against the Dodgers and also in Coors Field. He’s still due for regression, but Wacha is facing a Twins team whose .670 OPS against RHP ranks No. 25 in MLB, and the Cardinals are the third-most favored team (-185) Tuesday.
Stephen Vogt, C, at SD (Cashner), $3100: He’s slowed down since a really hot start but still owns a .967 OPS with 11 homers over 144 at bats against right handers and is moderately priced here, especially when you consider how thin catcher is.
Cameron Maybin, OF, at BOS (Miley), $3000: He has a .294-24-5-32-11 line over 191 at bats and will be facing a lefty in an extreme hitter’s park.
Dalton Del Don at Roto Arcade 15 days ago
Matt Harvey has a 7.20 ERA over his last four starts, when he’s allowed 20 earned runs over 25.0 innings while serving up a whopping eight homers. He has 26 strikeouts over that span, and he claims he’s fully healthy after undergoing a “dead arm” period, so hopefully this is just a bump in the road. Harvey’s 12.5 SwStr% is exactly the same as his career mark, and his velocity is just fine. In fact, his average FB velocity of 95.9 mph leads all starters this year. I don’t like to call home runs allowed luck and not skill related for the most part, but it’s probably worth noting Harvey’s current HR/FB% (15.4) is nearly double his career mark of 8.6. That’s with his Hard% actually being a career low (so this really does appear to be a small sample/unfortunate situation, albeit this is assuming the latest stretch isn’t health related). Put differently, 17.4 percent of the hits Harvey’s allowed this season have gone over the fence, which sure seems unsustainable. On an innings limit returning from Tommy John surgery, Harvey is likely only looking at another 100.0 or so from here on out, but I fully expect those to be at an elite level, despite the recent rough patch.