Goldschmidt ready to launch (USAT)

As usual, first base is deep this year, but most fantasy gamers will also use the position for their corner infield spot, so we can’t totally wait until the end game. With so many similar options in the middle tiers, identifying which ones to target will be key. Dalton Del Don and Brad Evans have a differing opinion on whom to take first, Billy Butler or Paul Goldschmidt.

Evans to open: Here’s a shocker: I’m completely enamored with both of these guys. Being the meat in a Goldy/Butler sandwich would fulfill a fantasy. But in a forced game of ‘Fantasy Bachelorette,’ the Schmidt gets the rose.

Butler is a marvelous multi-categorical contributor. Last season he finally tapped into his power potential falling just shy of 30 homers. But he likely reached his long-ball zenith. Goldschmidt, meanwhile, enters only his second full Major League season after slaughtering innocent baseballs over three years on the farm. He remains a player in-development. Though he got off on the wrong foot in 2012 posting a .193-1-8-6 line in April, he quickly bounced back slashing a .297-19-76-74-16 output the rest of the way, which, according to Baseball Monster, was the fifth-most valuable tally among first basemen during that stretch, one spot ahead of Butler.

[Baseball 2013 from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports: Join a league today!]

Kimbrel was as dominant as it gets last year (USAT)

Battling through hip and back injuries, Dan Haren posted a 4.33 ERA last season that was his worst since 2004 - his second year in the league. His average fastball velocity dropped to a career low 88.5 mph, and lingering questions regarding his health left him without many suitors during the offseason when he was a free agent. Ultimately, he signed with the Nationals on a one-year, $13 million deal. While not cheap, it was a bit surprising someone with his track record couldn’t fetch a multi-year deal, but he passed his physical and will have every incentive to prove he’s healthy in 2013. Haren is just one season removed from posting a 5.8:1 K:BB ratio (which was second best in baseball) with a 1.02 WHIP, and he’ll now be moving back to the National League. Projecting wins can be tricky, but it certainly helps that the Nationals’ lineup looks like one of the best in the league, and they also possess what appears to be an elite back-end to their bullpen (and having Denard Span playing center field doesn’t hurt either). Even during last year’s struggles (thanks mostly to giving up too many homers), Haren had a 142:38 K:BB ratio. Assuming he’s back healthy (and remember, it wasn’t an arm injury), the former fantasy ace could be a huge profit in the NL. He somehow went for just $10 during this weekend’s NL-only LABR auction. I personally rank him as a borderline top-25 fantasy starter.

Blake Griffin's fantasy value continues to climb (USAT)

After being the 100th most valuable fantasy player during the first month of the season, Blake Griffin has ranked 19th ever since, as his value hasn’t been tied to Chris Paul’s availability (actually if anything he’s been more valuable when CP3 is sidelined, with his assists notably going up). Griffin is on pace to finish with career lows in ppg (18.5) and rpg (8.6) - the latter by a wide margin. But he’s become much more active on the defensive end, averaging 1.4 spg (his previous high was 0.8), and ironically, his drop in Usage Rate has helped his fantasy value, as while his free-throw shooting has improved (his 66.2 percent mark is a career best, but he shot 64.2 percent from the line as a rookie), the big difference is him getting to the charity stripe less this year. After averaging 8.5 freebies per game as a rookie and 7.1 last year, that number is all the way down to 5.5 this season, so his impact there has been felt less by fantasy owners. And while this might not be bankable moving forward, if Griffin can improve a bit more and get close to 70.0 percent (a number he’s bested over his past 25 games) from the line, he’s going to remain an elite fantasy player. After averaging 7.3 attempts at the rim over his first two years in the league, Griffin is getting “just” 5.6 this season, but he still easily leads the NBA with 138 dunks (JaVale McGee is second with 126). Griffin’s overall FG% may not be a career best, but this is a bit misleading since he’s attempting fewer shots from in close, as his percentages from at the rim, from 3-9 feet, from 10-15 feet and from 16-23 feet are all career highs, so his offensive game is developing as hoped.

Here’s a sick LeBron James pregame dunk.

I sure hope the Nets PR team was being facetious with this tweet.

[Baseball 2013 from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports: Join a league today!]

Aroldis Chapman making move to rotation (USAT)

There are a handful of outfielders worthy of being taken in the first round even after Mike Trout and Ryan Braun are off the board, all of whom should be valued similarly. I’m personally taking Matt Kemp first in this tier, as he’s one season removed from a .324-39-115-126-40 campaign and finished April with 12 homers and a .417/.490/.893 line over 23 games last year. But injuries derailed the rest of his season and coming off serious shoulder surgery that repaired a detached labrum and rotator cuff damage, he’s certainly not without risk. Andrew McCutchen is likely off the board next in most leagues, and it’s tough to argue after he posted a .327/.400/.553 line as a 26-year-old last season. But his SB rate (66.1%) hasn’t been very good over the past two campaigns, including going 6-for-14 after the ASB last year, and playing for the Pirates hurts his counting stats. Over the past three years, Carlos Gonzalez has hit .313 while averaging 27.3 homers, 97.3 runs scored, 98.0 RBI and 22.0 steals. He’s done so while averaging just 135.7 games played. In other words, if every hitter in baseball were guaranteed 650 at-bats in 2013, CarGo would be a top-three pick, but unfortunately, there’s no denying his durability issues. Still, Gonzalez has major upside, even if the production comes in huge home/road splits.

[Baseball 2013 from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports: Join a league today!]

King James in middle of MVP debate (USAT)

Over his past seven games leading into the All-Star break, LeBron James has averaged 32.0 ppg while shooting a ridiculous 68.9 percent from the field (80-for-116), becoming the first player in NBA history to score at least 30 points with at least a 60.0 FG% in six straight games (it would have been seven if not for a miss late in Thursday’s win in Oklahoma City). He’s attempted his regular amount of shots at the rim over this span (6.8) compared to his season numbers (6.7, which ranks third in the league behind only Greg Monroe and Nikola Pekovic), but he’s made an insane 89.1 percent of his shots from in close during this stretch – James should be considered the best finisher in the NBA right now (thanks in no small part to Dwight Howard’s health). Among all players who’ve averaged at least 6.0 attempts at the rim, no one is within five percentage points from James’ 78.8 mark. The only player in the league who’s shot better at the rim in a meaningful sample is Al Horford, who’s attempted 4.9 shots per game and has a 79.3 percent mark, but James has bested him in four of the past five years. While that’s impressive, LBJ has also shot a scorching 53.8 percent (14-for-26) from three-point land over this epic seven-game span, as his play has gone next level.

James opened the season scoring 20 points or more in 33 straight games, which is the second most in NBA history (he also had scored 20 points or more in seven straight All-Star games, which is a league record, until he was held to just 19 points Sunday night). He hasn’t fouled out of a game since 2008. Among the top-20 in FG%, only one other player (Tony Parker) averages at least 1.0 3pt other than James, who’s 56.5 FG% ranks sixth despite attempting 3.4 three-pointers per game. Kevin Durant has been the better fantasy property this year, although this has been James’ most valuable fantasy season of his career, and he’s now comfortably ahead of Durant when it comes to PER. So considering defense, who would you vote for league MVP over the first half of the season?

Here’s Kyrie Irving doing work in the Rising Stars Challenge. There was a lot more where that came from too, as he and Brandon Knight really competed at times in an otherwise exhibition event.

Here’s a pretty sick Blake Griffin dunk.

Hunter Pence was better at speeches than hitting (USAT)

The Giants improbably won their second World Series over the past three years in 2012, once again riding strong pitching and terrific defense in the postseason. They did so despite being down 2-0 against the Reds while heading to play the next three games in Cincinnati and then down 3-1 against the Cardinals in the NLCS, only to outscore their opponents 36-7 over the next seven games – all wins. San Francisco became champs while hitting by far the fewest home runs in major league baseball, although that had plenty to do with AT&T Park, which had the lowest HR Park Factor (0.522) of any stadium since 2002.

The Giants somehow won the World Series despite Tim Lincecum finishing with a 5.18 ERA, losing their closer (Brian Wilson) for the year, once again getting nothing out of Freddy Sanchez, Aubrey Huff posting a .192/.326/.282 line, Pablo Sandoval missing 50+ games and also disappointing while playing, Brandon Belt not even coming close to breaking out like hoped (he didn’t hit his fifth homer of the year until September 4 - his first of the year against a right-hander), Hunter Pence batting .219/.287/.384 over 219 at-bats after SF traded for him and losing Melky Cabrera, who was leading the league in batting at the time, to a season-ending PED suspension. Moreover, the Giants spent $38.1 million on Aaron Rowand, Wilson, Sanchez and Huff last year. The entire A’s payroll was $52,873,000.

[Also: Ryan Braun again in middle of PED storm]

Of course, plenty of other things went right, and most teams need some luck to win a championship, which the Giants undoubtedly had during their October run. Barry Zito saved possibly his two best starts since joining SF for the most important times, shutting out the Cardinals over 7.2 innings in St. Louis during an elimination game and beating Justin Verlander in Game 1 of the World Series in a matchup that Vegas pegged the Tigers as nearly 3-1 favorites (about as big as any single baseball game ever gets). Yes, the same Zito who threw this pitch last season. Marco Scutaro hit .500 in the NLCS, and after having 12 homers over 396 regular season at-bats, Sandoval hit six in 66 postseason ABs, including three over his first three at-bats in the World Series. And then there was this.

While the Giants stood pat during the offseason, with their only major moves re-signing their own players, the Dodgers sure look formidable. Arizona could be sneaky good too. This division should be hard fought, and despite SF being the defending champs, Los Angeles may enter 2013 as the favorites in the National League West.

The requisite Moneyball reference (USAT)

Despite entering the year as heavy underdogs to both the Rangers and Angels, the A’s won the AL West last season, coming from down 5-1 in a memorable game on the final day of the regular season that I happened to be at.  The result culminated a remarkable comeback, as on June 30, the A’s trailed the Rangers by 13.5 games (not to mention the Red Sox by 4.5) and even crazier, were five games behind Texas with just nine remaining on the schedule, as they became one of the most unlikely division winners in recent memory. It wasn’t a fluke either (although counting on a repeat of last year’s league-leading 15 walk-off wins probably isn’t safe), as Oakland’s run differential (+99) was the fourth-best in the American League and just barely behind the Rangers (+101). Still, this was a team that lost Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, Andrew Bailey and Josh Willingham during the previous offseason, so the success was certainly unexpected.

They accomplished this with newcomer Yoenis Cespedes missing a month of action, Coco Crisp (unsurprisingly) being sidelined even longer than that and the projected middle infield of Jemile Weeks and Cliff Pennington being totally worthless. It was even worse on the pitching side, as Brandon McCarthy was limited to just 18 starts due to a scary head injury, Bartolo Colon’s surprisingly strong season was cut short thanks to a suspension and Brett Anderson’s return from TJ surgery was limited by a subsequent oblique strain. In fact, Oakland’s entire rotation consisted of rookies for a stretch. In other words, the A’s overachieved while simultaneously having plenty of things go wrong. Oakland fielded a strong defense and the team sported the second best ERA (3.48) in the AL despite having such a young staff.

[Baseball 2013 from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports: Join a league today!]

Despite playing in a pitcher’s park, Oakland led major league baseball in runs scored and home runs after the All-Star break last season and added Jed Lowrie, Hiroyuki Nakajima, John Jaso and Chris Young during the offseason. The A’s have to deal with two of the best teams in MLB in their own division, but at least they get to play the Astros 19 times this year (which in turn, also reverses a past advantage Texas had in interleague play, as they previously got to beat up on Houston while Oakland had to face San Francisco every year). The A’s have their work cut out for them to make the playoffs let alone win their division again, but there’s no doubt this is an intriguing young team.

Rudy Gay enjoying his new digs (USAT)

When I first analyzed the Rudy Gay trade, I surmised the move was lateral for his fantasy value. I’ve since quickly changed my mind, even rating him 20th on my latest Big Board update after just a couple of games with the Raptors, as the drop in quality when it comes to teammates appears to be far more outweighed by his increased responsibilities. Call it the James Harden effect. After averaging 16.4 FGA with Memphis, he’s up to 21.0 with Toronto, including a whopping 6.0 3pt and also 5.7 FTA (all three would easily be career highs). Gay’s 12 rebounds Wednesday were a season high, while his 2.7 spg since joining Toronto would be a career best by a wide margin. Of course, three games is an extremely small sample, but Gay’s Usage Rate (29.21) since joining Toronto is also easily a career high, and it’s probably safe to expect increased volume. Gay was a disappointment in Memphis this year, and there’s an argument the Grizzlies improved after the deal, both short and long term, but he ranked 31st in fantasy value last year and is now going to be the lead dog in Toronto. Maybe my top-20 ranking was overly aggressive, but I’d be surprised if the trade doesn’t make him a much more valuable fantasy asset over the rest of the season.