Estrada's underlying stats last year were out of control (USAT)
Marco Estrada is hardly a “sleeper” who’s going to be super cheap, but he’s someone to target nevertheless. First the bad news: he gave up 18 homers over 138.1 innings last year, which is hardly ideal. This was accompanied by a 10.5 HR/FB%, so there was nothing fluky about it either. But this crazy high HR rate didn’t come with a solid 3.64 ERA and strong 1.14 WHIP by accident, as Estrada also posted a 143:29 K:BB ratio. If he had qualified, his 25.4 K% would have tied for third best in all of baseball, and among those in the top-10 in that category, his accompanying 5.2 BB% would have easily been the lowest. Not only that, his 18.0 IFFB% would have also been the highest among all starters. This is a combination that shouldn’t be overlooked. When it came to striking out and walking batters faced, essentially he was the best in the league by a wide margin. And inducing infield flies should basically be treated as a K. If you want to dig deeper, Estrada’s .298 BABIP last year looks unlucky when you consider it came with a 0.76 GB/FB ratio and the aforementioned 18.0 IFFB%. Track record matters, so he should be viewed around a top-35 fantasy starter this year, but if you looked at last season’s peripherals alone, Estrada would be worthy of being treated as a top 10-15ish starting pitcher.
[Baseball 2013 from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports: Join a league today!]Read More »from Mostly MLB Notes: Why to target Marco Estrada, Carlos Gomez and Yu Darvish