YOUR FRIENDS' ACTIVITY

    Andy Behrens

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    Andy is the editor of Roto Arcade. He blogs on baseball and football.

    • Pressing Questions: The St. Louis Cardinals

      Cardinal party! (Getty Images)

      St. Louis will open 2013 with a lineup that looks nearly identical to the group that dropped Game 7 of the NLCS last October ... and that seems perfectly OK. Last year's team was excellent.

      The Cardinals won 88 games in 2012, posting the NL's second-best run differential, then edged Atlanta in the wild card play-in game (thanks in part to a ridiculous, rally-killing ruling that went against the Braves). There have been a few off-season personnel losses, but nothing devastating. Lance Berkman is gone, though he barely played last year. Kyle Lohse is out of the picture, too, a free agent linked to several teams. The Cards will have little trouble replacing Puma's production — Allen Craig takes over at first base — but Lohse's 200-plus innings are another matter. The veteran is coming off a career year: 16-3, 2.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP. And it sounds like Chris Carpenter won't pitch this season, his career in jeopardy due to persistent arm issues.

      Still, it's not as if the Cards will be completely without pitching in 2013. Adam Wainwright is entering a contract year, now two seasons removed from Tommy John surgery. Lance Lynn is coming off an 18-win campaign, Jaime Garcia is presumably healthy, and Jake Westbrook is still lurking. Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly and Trevor Rosenthal are in the mix, too.

      And then there's this nugget: St. Louis has the best farm system in baseball, according to pretty much everyone who rates such things. Here's Sickels, here's Law, here's BA. The Cardinals are well-positioned for success over multiple seasons.

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    • Pressing Questions: The Cincinnati Reds

      Mr. Redlegs & Rosie, wide-eyed and terrifying (USAT Sports)

      Cincinnati has claimed the N.L. Central flag in two of the past three seasons, winning 97 games last year, and this team has to be considered the favorite to take the division title in 2013. Last year's pitching staff was outstanding, ranking fourth in MLB in team ERA (3.34), third in WHIP (1.23) and fourth in quality starts (98) — crazy numbers when you consider the fact that Great American Ball Park is among the most hitter-friendly (and power-friendly) environments in baseball.

      The Reds have added Shin-Soo Choo to the lineup this season, presumably in the lead-off spot, giving the team a table-setter with respectable speed, pop, and on-base skills (.381 career OBP). Choo will be followed in the batting order by Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Ryan Ludwick and Jay Bruce, four guys who've collectively made eight All-Star appearances, winning three Silver Sluggers and an MVP award.

      In a nutshell, this team should not have much trouble scoring runs, nor preventing runs. That's a decent combo. It's a good time to be a Reds fan. Cincy appears to be poised for a period of sustained success. Votto is under contract for the next decade-plus, Bruce is locked up through 2017, and both Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos are under team control through 2015.

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    • Pressing Questions: The Tampa Bay Rays

      Fernando Rodney, relief ace (Getty Images)

      Tampa Bay's pitchers were ridiculous last season, leading all of baseball in both team ERA (3.19) and WHIP (1.17), ranking third in total strikeouts (1383).

      Basically, they rolled out an entire staff of Stephen Strasburgs (3.16 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). Hardly seems fair, but they did it.

      In four of the past five seasons, the Rays have ranked either first or second in the American League in team ERA, so we've come to expect pitching dominance from this group. Not coincidentally, Tampa has also won 90 or more games in four of the last five years. This is a design-on-a-dime team that seems to shed high-priced players each season, yet always returns to the pennant race. It helps, obviously, that the farm system coughs up useful prospects each year.

      Sure, Tampa's regular starting lineup will include a few names that you'd pay to not own in fantasy — James Loney, Yunel Escobar, a lesser Molina. But the rotation appears to be loaded (despite the loss of James Shields) and the bullpen should be excellent again.

      The Rays' offseason wasn't quite as splashy as Toronto's, and they don't have the spending advantages of Boston or New York, but this franchise will nonetheless contend in the East. The roster isn't short on fantasy assets, so let's get to the Q&A...

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    • Pressing Questions: The Toronto Blue Jays

      Dude may not have caught the ball, but he didn't spill his Stella. Fine work, unknown fan (USAT Sports Images)

      The Blue Jays won just 73 games last season, finishing fourth in a division where the top three teams all reached 90 victories. It's been 13 years since any team claimed an AL East flag with fewer than 95 wins. Thus, Toronto's front office entered the offseason knowing that it wouldn't be enough to make only small changes at the margins.

      With this fact in mind, general manager Alex Anthopoulos has spent the past three months overhauling and upgrading the Jays' roster, completing a transformation that would be difficult to execute in, say, a 10-team dynasty league. Toronto completed a 12-player deal with the Marlins in November — adding Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle and Emilio Bonifacio — then pulled off a seven-player trade with the Mets in December, picking up Cy Young winner RA Dickey. They acquired John Buck in one deal, then flipped him in another. Along the way, the Jays also signed PED offender Melky Cabrera to a relatively modest make-good contract (two years, $16 million). This team traded its manager, too, which isn't the most common occurrence.

      Toronto has added tens of millions of dollars in salary in a short period of time, substantially improving the big league roster at the expense of the farm system. (Prospects Travis d'Arnaud and Noah Snydergaard were shipped to New York, Jake Marisnick, Adeiny Hechavarria and Justin Nicolino to Miami). Without question, the Jays are going to be a whole lot better in 2013. It's no stretch to imagine this team in the postseason — which, again, will require something like a 20-win improvement. Toronto has depth and talent in the rotation, plus plenty of speed and power in the lineup.

      In most fantasy drafts, the early rounds will be full of Jays. Let's review...

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    • Done deal: Justin Upton traded to the Braves (finally)

      Glad you're staying in the NL, Justin. (USAT Sports)

      After months of rumored deals, near deals, non-deals and rejected deals, Justin Upton is finally on the move.

      Upton and Chris Johnson have been traded to the Atlanta Braves in a seven-player swap, with Martin Prado and Randall Delgado the biggest names headed to Arizona. Also joining the D-backs are prospects Brandon Drury, Nick Ahmed and Zeke Spuril, none of whom project as legit fantasy assets. (You can find John Sickels' notes on the farmhands right here).

      The big winner in this deal, without question, is me. I've got Upton on my roster at $30 in an NL-only dynasty league ($300 salary cap). If he would have been shipped to the American League, whatever compensation I received would not have offset my loss. So yeah, I'm thrilled. Big thanks to Justin for killing that trade to Seattle.

      Upton now heads to Turner Field, where he's hit reasonably well over a small number of at-bats (57 AB, .293/.388/.483). He'll join his brother BJ in Atlanta, where they'll team with Jason Heyward, forming a ridiculously talented young outfield. Remember, Justin is still just 25 years old, BJ is 28, and Heyward is only 23. There's a park downgrade to worry about here, as Turner isn't quite as hitter-friendly as Chase Field, particularly for right-handed power. But the Braves' lineup isn't too shabby — Freeman, Uggla, McCann, et al — plus you have to assume that Justin may benefit from having all the trade talk behind him. And, assuming he and his brother actually like each other, he's no doubt pleased with his landing spot.

      Read More »from Done deal: Justin Upton traded to the Braves (finally)
    • Pressing Questions: The Milwaukee Brewers

      Milwaukee's best (Getty Images)

      A year ago, nearly to the day, Ryan Braun was appealing a 50-game PED suspension before a three-man arbitration panel. The appeal seemed like a perfunctory step at the time, an almost hopeless legal exercise. Ballplayers don't exactly have a long track record of success in such cases.

      But Braun nonetheless beat the rap, due to chain-of-custody issues with his test sample. (Three months later, Major League Baseball fired the arbitrator who'd been the swing-vote on the panel). Braun then delivered another monster season for the Brewers, essentially matching his MVP-level production from 2011. He crossed the plate 108 times, he hit 41 bombs, stole 30 bases, drove in 112 runs, and finished with a .319/.391/.595 slash-line.

      Perhaps some of you have issues with the legitimacy of Braun's stats. If so, I get it — I'm not actually much of a PED crusader myself, but I get it. No one's forcing you to buy his jersey, or the Fathead, or the plush doll that looks nothing like him.

      Let's just hope your stance on Braun — whatever it is, if you have one at all — won't prevent you from selecting him at or near the top of your draft. He's a five-category asset unlike any other in our game, proven across multiple seasons. Braun will be the No. 1 overall player on my board whenever we get around to publishing preseason ranks. He's not simply useful in all five standard cats, but he's exceptional. The man has never finished outside the overall top-30 in fantasy value in any of his six seasons, and he's ranked top-five in three of the last four. He's pretty much a perfect fantasy weapon. Draft the stats and enjoy.

      Read More »from Pressing Questions: The Milwaukee Brewers
    • Pressing Questions: The Chicago Cubs

      The bleacher experience in a nutshell: Tough guys with Mai Tais (Getty)

      This week, we begin our usual series of MLB fantasy previews, wherein we consider 5-6 key questions surrounding each team. Baseball is coming, gamers. Pitchers and catchers report next month. Fantasy owners report immediately...

      The year ahead will be the 105th consecutive season in which the Chicago Cubs fail to win the World Series, thus extending the most remarkable streak of non-achievement in the history of American sports anything. If you came to this preview looking for false hope, Cubs fan ... well, sorry. This team, on paper, looks pretty bad. Chicago was one of only three squads to post a sub-.400 winning percentage last year. Even if this group improves by 10 wins, they'll still be a 91-loss team. There's basically a zero percent chance that the Cubs will earn a place in the postseason in 2013 — and no, the second wild card spot doesn't really help them. Five extra wild card spots might not help.

      True, there are a few interesting names on the North Side pitching staff, some of them new to the franchise. But this team's lineup was miserable last season — 28th in run scoring, 29th in on-base percentage, 27th in slugging — and it hasn't really improved in any significant way. Chicago is still very much in the rebuild phase, at all organizational levels. Former GM Jim Hendry left behind an overpaid, under-skilled mess.

      Nevertheless, there are a couple of ownable pieces here for fantasy owners to consider. Let's get to work...

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    • Submitted for your derision: Fantasy ranks for NFL playoff leagues

      Peyton-to-Demaryius, profitable fantasy combo (Getty Images)

      Perhaps the dumbest thing a fantasy manager can possibly do is publish player ranks on a mainstream sports site on the morning of a draft. Definitely not recommended. Poor strategy, requiring a special combination of stupidity and hubris. Far from ideal.

      Nonetheless, I'm doing it today. My first fantasy playoff draft is coming up in just a few short hours, and I'm publishing ranks in advance. (Again: Unwise). Obviously I'd prefer to post this thing much later in the afternoon, after the draft, but my schedule is pretty jammed. I've blocked off eight-and-a-half hours to watch the Big Ten scuffle through five bowl games. The conference requires my full attention. So let's just rank the NFL playoff field right now.

      [Repeat: The ranks here are strictly for PLAYOFF fantasy leagues. These are *not* 2013 regular season ranks. If you're looking for a preview of next year's fantasy draft, go here. We've done it. But today, we're only considering players involved in the current NFL postseason.]

      First, a few details about league settings...

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    • First draft: Here’s a way-too-early 2013 fantasy football mock

      All-Day, next year's top pick (USAT)

      So there may not be a worse time to draft a 2013 fantasy league than today, before the final week of the 2012 regular season has even kicked off. We still have dozens of injuries ahead, plus the usual off-season player movement and coaching changes. And then there's April's NFL Draft.

      Thus, we begin this feature with an important warning: DO NOT TRY THIS AT HOME.

      It's fine for me to conduct a one-man 2013 mock in 2012, of course, because I'm a fully licensed fantasy professional. Ordinary citizens shouldn't think about drafting a league for another seven or eight months, however. Today's exercise is simply a guessing game, based on an incomplete picture of the league. It's theoretical fantasy football. But you're nonetheless allowed to ridicule the mock in comments, in keeping with tradition.

      [Related NFL coverage: Five NFL coaches most likely to be fired]

      Please assume that we're playing a standard Yahoo! public league, with 10 teams, two starting running backs, three receivers, and no PPR. What you're getting here is a blend of what I'd do if drafting today, and what I think would likely happen if nine other owners were involved. And don't hold me to these results — the expiration date for this draft is coming soon.

      OK, the key caveats are out of the way. Let's do this thing...

      Read More »from First draft: Here’s a way-too-early 2013 fantasy football mock
    • Which playoff teams will rest starters in Week 17? Atlanta? Indy? Anyone?

      Mike Smith greets Gonzo (USAT Sports)

      Those of you who choose to settle fantasy championships in Week 17 understand the pitfalls, no doubt. A few of the NFL's better teams have already clinched everything they can clinch, so there's a risk of shutdown. It's the usual end-of-year worry.

      If you've been riding various Falcons this season, for example, then you're probably a little panicked about their availability in title week. Atlanta has already locked up home field advantage throughout the post-season in the NFC. Thus, the risk-reward calculation gets tricky for head coach Mike Smith. A win versus Tampa Bay means little, and an injury to a key starter would be disastrous. But Smith probably doesn't want to see his team stumble into the bye-week, either; it's not as if the Falcons have an impressive playoff resume. They're 0-3 in the post-season in the Matt Ryan era.

      As Week 17s go, this year actually isn't the worst. Both byes are unclaimed in the AFC, the No. 2 seed is still undecided in the NFC, and a pair of division titles remain unsettled. (Click here for updated playoff scenarios). Most of the league's elite offenses have something significant on the line this week ... but not all of 'em.

      Let's review the four playoff qualifiers that might choose to sit starters for at least some portion of Week 17...

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